Donald Trump’s decision to involve the United States in the conflict with Iran began to produce measurable political effects within the country. A New York Times/Siena poll released this Monday (the 18th) shows that the president’s approval has fallen to 37%, the lowest level since the start of his second term in the White House.
The survey indicates that opposition to the war cuts across a significant portion of the American electorate and primarily affects independents, a decisive group in the midterm legislative elections scheduled for November.
According to the poll, nearly two-thirds of respondents consider that Trump erred in entering the conflict in the Middle East. Among independents, the figure rises even higher. Almost three-quarters say the decision was misguided.
The prevailing perception among voters is that the political, economic, and military costs of the war do not pay off. Less than a quarter of respondents said they believed the offensive was worth the wear and tear it provoked.
The conflict has also spilled over into areas traditionally favorable to Republicans. The management of the economy, one of Trump’s main political assets since the campaign, began to show sharp deterioration.
According to the survey, 64% disapprove of the president’s economic management. The outlook also worsened on issues related to the cost of living and foreign policy, including the conduct of the war in Gaza and the escalation with Tehran.
The wear and tear appears more intensely outside the Republican base. Among independents, 69% currently disapprove of Trump’s performance, above the 62% recorded in January.
The sense of direct impact of the president’s policies has also grown. Today, 44% say they have been personally harmed by the government’s decisions, compared with 36% last year. Among independents, the percentage rose from 41% at the end of 2025 to 47% now.
Despite the worsening indicators, Trump still preserves important pillars of political support. The issue of immigration remains relatively resistant to wear and maintains an approval rating of 41%.
Midterms
The Republicans also enter the electoral cycle with a structural advantage in the race for the House of Representatives after the redrawing of electoral districts in states controlled by the party, a move that expanded the number of seats considered favorable to conservatives.
The poll also points to persistent difficulties for Democrats in converting dissatisfaction with Trump into electoral enthusiasm. Only 26% of respondents said they were satisfied with the Democratic Party.
Internal discontent also appears elevated among Democrats themselves: 44% said they were dissatisfied with the party. Among Republicans, this figure stood at 23%.
Nevertheless, in a hypothetical scenario for the midterm elections, Democrats appear numerically ahead. According to the survey, 50% say they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, compared with 39% who would choose a Republican.
Among independents, the Democratic lead stands at 18 percentage points.
The survey also measured support for new military actions against Iran. More than half of respondents, 52%, said that Trump should not resume attacks if no nuclear deal is reached.
Another sensitive point concerns the limits of presidential power in military decisions. According to the survey, 63% of Americans, including 27% of Republicans, believe that the president should not use military force without congressional authorization.
Within the Trump base, however, support for a hardline stance remains high. About 70% of Republicans back resuming military operations if negotiations fail, while 73% believe that the war could eliminate the Iranian nuclear program.
