European and American authorities are already working with the prospect that the war in Ukraine will extend into next year, in light of assessments that the United States’ latest initiative to negotiate peace did not gain traction with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to European authorities familiar with the discussions, Putin intends to intensify attacks against Ukraine during the winter, testing the country’s resilience and the willingness of his allies to continue supporting Kyiv. The envoys of the U.S. president, Donald Trump, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, did not achieve significant progress during the talks held over the weekend in Moscow and Kyiv.
Putin and Trump had a phone call of about an hour on Tuesday to discuss the results of the visits by the American envoys, according to the Kremlin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov. According to him, the conversation was “constructive and fairly frank”, and the two leaders agreed to stay in touch.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he expected to meet with Trump at the end of September. According to him, negotiations will continue among United States, Europe and Ukraine’s national security advisers, and Kyiv advocates holding new trilateral talks with Washington and Moscow later this autumn.
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that Russia expects the trilateral negotiations with Ukraine and the United States to resume and that it remains open to a peaceful solution to the conflict.
Putin, however, continues to demand full control of the Ukrainian Donetsk region as a condition for any peace agreement. Ukraine rejects the demand and calls for a ceasefire on the current front lines to allow negotiations to continue.
The White House referred questions about the negotiations to a statement released on Saturday, in which it said that the American envoys discussed “substantial plans for the next steps” during the meeting with Putin.
After a three-day pause imposed by Putin during Kushner and Witkoff’s visit to Kyiv, Russia resumed missile strikes against Ukraine. Zelensky said the Ukrainian government will hold new talks with allied countries and companies to expand the supply of air defense systems.
According to officials cited by Bloomberg, Putin did not show any willingness to flexibilize his positions, despite recent efforts by the United States to restart peace negotiations.
Zelensky said that the American envoys presented “some good ideas” during the meetings in Kyiv, but declined to give details. According to him, it was agreed with Washington that the topics would be explored in depth before any public disclosure.
European authorities assess that Russia’s plans for the next six months include intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s energy and heating infrastructure, with the aim of making living conditions more difficult for the population during the winter. Moscow would also be expanding hybrid attacks and political influence actions in Europe to weaken support for the Ukrainian government.
The Kremlin’s strategy would be to reach next spring with a more favorable negotiating position, even in the face of growing pressure on the Russian economy. For some officials, truly substantive negotiations are unlikely to occur before 2027.
In light of this scenario, Ukraine’s allies are discussing strengthening the deployment of air defense systems. European countries are working on a plan to acquire Patriot missiles made in the United States and deploy them to Kyiv before winter, using resources tied to NATO’s Ukraine Priority Needs program.
“We must be prepared for a prolonged conflict and for Ukraine’s needs to persist in the coming months and years,” said the U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
According to one source, Putin also used the visit of the American envoys to demonstrate strength domestically before the State Duma parliamentary elections scheduled for 18-20 September. The report said the Russian president kept the U.S. delegation waiting until evening to receive them at the Kremlin.
Although officials expect trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine to resume after the Russian elections, the prevailing assessment is that the discussions are still far from producing an agreement capable of ending the war.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
