Dubai/Aden/Riyadh (Reuters) – The lightning advance of the Houthis along Yemen’s Red Sea coast this week was directed directly by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which seeks to open a new front in Iran’s war against the United States, according to sources in the Yemeni, Iranian, and regional governments.
Upon capturing the port city of Mocha in the southwest, the Houthis strengthened their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic shipping lane whose disruption would further restrict global energy supplies, following Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Six months after the start of the broader regional conflict between the Houthis’ Iranian-backed allies and the United States, the group now appears focused on consolidating that control over the strait, even as the opposing government forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, focus on an offensive in the north.
Iran instructed the Houthis last week to intensify their attacks against Saudi Arabia, a close US ally, and promised more funding, weapons, and senior officers to help them in this task, according to two Iranian sources.
Although Iran describes the Houthis as allies, it publicly denies providing them military guidance and says they “do not act as its representatives.”
Also read: Houthis attack Saudi energy facilities and oil prices rise
Several senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had already traveled to Yemen to supervise and command the Houthi attacks directed at Saudi Arabia, after weeks of discussions about military strategy, said a regional diplomat briefed by Tehran.
A third Iranian source said that Iran had held several meetings with allies, including the Houthis, and that the Mocha operation was a decision by the Houthis, not Iran. However, this served to help Iran put upward pressure on oil prices and harm the United States and Saudi Arabia, the source added.
In Yemen, five military sources from the government backed by Saudi Arabia and internationally recognized said that the Revolutionary Guards had directed the new Houthi campaign along the Red Sea coast — a narrow, flat plain known as the Tihama — starting with a barrage of rockets.
Citing intercepted communications and reports from captured Houthi prisoners, Yemeni military sources said they believed the Iranian action was being commanded by Abdolreza Shahlaei, a senior commander of the Revolutionary Guards.
Iranian sources could not immediately confirm this, although they had already described Shahlaei — who is part of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force — as someone who spent some time in Yemen in recent years.
Weapons and Personnel Transported
The Revolutionary Guards were still able to transport weapons and personnel into and out of Yemen, despite the air and sea blockade of the Houthis’ areas, Iranian sources said, without giving further details on how this occurred.
“If we look at their west coast offensive, it is not something that was prepared just last week or last month,” said Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, describing the capture of Mocha as a significant milestone in the war.
“The Houthis’ evolution has basically come from the new weapons they obtained, whether directly from the Iranians or through the various smuggling networks they rely on,” Nagi said, highlighting specifically the use of drones in the latest offensive.
Uncertain Military Situation
When the Houthis began advancing toward Mocha last week, the Yemeni government requested more air support and other forms of assistance from the Saudis, two more Yemeni officials said.
The government sought a Saudi air campaign against Houthi targets in the group’s stronghold, including Sanaa and important strategic assets such as oil depots, they said.
However, the Kingdom limited itself to providing logistical, arms, and intelligence support, with only restricted airstrikes, focused on the northern battlefronts in the Jawf and Marib provinces — areas the government considered less important.
The authorities themselves assessed that Riyadh was eager to avoid a major escalation with the Houthis, for fear of triggering more intense drone attacks on Saudi territory.
Saudi authorities did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment on Riyadh’s military focus on the northern front, rather than the Red Sea coast and other major Houthi targets.
The overall military situation in Yemen is hard to gauge after years of a lull in major hostilities since a ceasefire was agreed in 2022. Iran and Saudi Arabia have both invested in the forces they back in the country. But the government coalition has suffered from internal divisions.
While earlier rounds of fighting in the Tihama region have resulted in sharp advances and reversals, it remains unclear whether the Saudi-backed forces will manage to dislodge the Houthis easily this time, Nagi said.
“Perhaps we will see some government advances if it receives the necessary support from the Saudis. But that may be a bit difficult this time,” he said.
