The British magazine The Economist assessed, in a piece published on Monday (5), that the candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) arrives at the second round of the presidential election with an advantage over president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
The publication recalls that, in the recent history of the Brazilian democratic regime, no candidate who finished the first round in second place managed to turn the race.
According to the tally by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) obtained 56.1 million valid votes, representing 47.03%, while the PT candidate totaled 53.1 million votes, or 45.16%. The two return to the polls on October 25.
The magazine also drew attention to the advance of the PL in Congress. The party elected 19 of the 54 seats at stake last Sunday (4), and will have 28 of the 81 seats from 2027. The party led by Valdemar Costa Neto will also have the largest caucus in the Chamber of Deputies.
According to The Economist, Lula’s campaign endured a bitter public dissatisfaction, translated into votes, with the country’s economic trajectory. The rise in the cost of living, the high level of the Selic rate, and the blow to fiscal credibility weigh, temporarily, against a possible reelection of Lula.
According to the piece, the successive corruption scandals involving a significant portion of the country’s political institutions and the Supreme Federal Court (STF) reinforced, in this year’s election, a sentiment of opposition to the Brazilian political system.
The publication notes, however, that Lula has no direct involvement with the Banco Master case, although he was dragged along by accusations against minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the STF. Meanwhile, still according to The Economist, Flávio Bolsonaro is cited in the investigations about Banco Master for negotiations with Daniel Vorcaro regarding funds for a film about his father.
The publication points out that, to reverse the picture, Lula would need to reduce the record abstention registered yesterday, attracting voters from candidates defeated already in the first round. The signal to voters who did not vote on Sunday was present in the PT’s speech, made shortly after the confirmation of the results.
