The new conservative turn of the Brazilian electorate, with a majority in Congress and an advantage secured by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the first round of elections on Sunday (5), reinforces Brazil as an important piece in the geopolitical chessboard of Latin America. The country is moving toward the ranks of nations under U.S. influence, more specifically under Donald Trump, and is moving away from China, at least in the political arena. This assessment comes from global think tanks that watch Latin American politics more closely.
Chatham House notes that a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro this year would create another South American government aligned with the Trump administration, joining the growing list of leaders allied with the White House — whether for commercial or ideological reasons — in Colombia, Venezuela, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile, Peru, the Dominican Republic and Ecuador.
The presidency of Flávio Bolsonaro would also bring a turnaround in foreign policy agendas focused on the PT, according to Christopher Sabatini, director of the Latin America Program at Chatham House.
“This would trigger, if not a withdrawal, at least a significantly reduced role in the BRICS group, which Trump criticized as ‘anti-American policies’.” In fact, since 2024, the bloc has added countries with little similarity to the original members (the BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), including the problematic Iran. And it started to advocate agendas of conflict with the U.S., such as de-dollarization in trade relations.
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Weakened Multilateralism
Sabatini also cited the risk that Brazil could drift away from other global forums, such as the UN, the G20 and the COP, “where Brasília asserted its position as representative of the Global South,” the expert noted. He recognizes that, under the PT, however, Brazil’s history of supporting multilateralism has been irregular.
He commented also that it is not clear that a “new Bolsonaro government” would represent a triumph for the so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ of Trump, which seeks to establish American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere. “Although a Brazil led by Bolsonaro would return Brasília to the anti-woke cultural battles of his father, that would not necessarily align with Trump’s White House, especially in trade,” he said.
Sabatini analyzes that a possible government of the PL candidate would hesitate to reduce trade with China, Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009. “China, however, may try to reduce its Brazilian imports if Bolsonaro moves too far to challenge Beijing.”
Brazil Is “the Big Prize” for Trump
The Brookings Institution also analyzes that a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would be a major triumph for Trump, since the American president “has repeatedly meddled in this struggle.”
The think tank notes that, since July 2025, the U.S. government imposed heavy tariffs on Brazilian exports — in retaliation for the judiciary’s alleged “witch hunt” against former president Bolsonaro.
“Brazil, the largest power in Latin America, represents the big prize in a constant sequence of right-wing allies who come to power in the region. A return of a Bolsonaro to power would be decisive to consolidate the White House’s mission to realign Latin American nations as trustworthy U.S. allies, ready to carry out its orders to advance its ‘America First’ agenda with militarized approaches to crime and drug trafficking, repression of migration, and preferential access to critical minerals and energy,” Brookings lists.
For the think tank, the defense of democracy and human rights, the rule of law, environmental protection and balanced approaches to public security would be even more sidelined, if not discarded.
As with Chatham House, Brookings says that replacing Lula with a political ally close to Trump, such as Flávio Bolsonaro, would dramatically consolidate Trump’s regional influence, even if he could not secure Brazil’s support in all sectors, such as restricting trade with China.
“Bolsonaro [Flávio] would owe Trump for helping him argue that his ‘tough-on-crime’ approach to combat organized crime would win Washington’s favor, benefiting Brazilians tired of crime in their neighborhoods.”
Another point cited is that the PL candidate could yield on other priorities for Washington, such as preferential access to Brazil’s large stock of critical minerals. “In light of such great risks, it would be reasonable to expect that the White House would continue to interfere in Brazil’s internal politics up to inauguration day in Brasília next January and beyond,” says Brookings.
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The think tank notes that during the current term of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil has sought to maintain equidistant and pragmatic relations with both the United States and China.
“He has pursued what Brazilian authorities describe as ‘multialignment,’ maintaining a working relationship with Washington, expanding trade relations with Beijing, and using BRICS, the G20, and the Conference of the Parties to enlarge Brazil’s diplomatic space for maneuver.”
Autonomy and Sovereignty
The think tank says that this strategy rests on a broader Brazilian proposal: that countries outside the superpower tier are more likely to preserve significant autonomy when they use coalitions and multilateral institutions to improve bargaining leverage.
The Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an analogous argument for cooperation among middle powers facing economic coercion and the renewed rivalry among great powers in his Davos Speech. His warning that countries absent from the bargaining table risk ending up “on the menu” echoes a long-standing Brazilian concern that unequal bilateral negotiations leave even capable states vulnerable when great powers divide the world into spheres of influence.
Read more: After proposing member status to Canada, the EU wants to strengthen ties with Brazil
But a warning is issued that a possible shift in Brazil’s foreign policy under Flávio Bolsonaro would not necessarily produce a full realignment. “China’s heft in Brazil’s trade and investment relations would impose substantial limits on any effort to privilege Washington at Beijing’s expense. China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009, a large market for soybeans, crude oil and iron ore,” the think tank says.
It is remembered that during Jair Bolsonaro’s administration — Flávio’s father — anti-China rhetoric did not prevent bilateral trade from reaching record levels, and Brazil resisted U.S. pressure to exclude Huawei from its 5G deployment.
“A Brazilian withdrawal from BRICS would not be inevitable either. Brazil’s export interests, institutional constraints and its long-standing preference for diversified external relations would have limited Jair Bolsonaro’s earlier effort to realign Brazilian diplomacy; they would probably also limit a Flávio Bolsonaro administration.”
In the view of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro present different visions for Brazil’s foreign policy, which historically emphasized diplomacy and multilateralism.
It is highlighted that two of the country’s most important bilateral relationships are with the United States and China. Lula has drawn Brazil closer to China since taking office in early 2023; the two countries have signed dozens of accords on issues such as trade, technology and environmental protection.
In November 2024, Brazil and China announced the elevation of their bilateral partnership to a “China-Brazil Community with a Shared Future for a Fairer World and a More Sustainable Planet.”
Americas Shield
In contrast, the agenda proposed by Flávio Bolsonaro advocates stronger ties with the United States, which his father also pursued as president. “If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election, Brazil could seek to participate in the Trump administration’s regional security initiative, the Americas Shield, which Lula refused to join,” says the CFR.
Read more: Who makes up the Americas Shield — and who is left out
Lula and Bolsonaro present different visions for Brazil’s foreign policy, which historically emphasized diplomacy and multilateralism. Two of the country’s most important bilateral relationships are with the United States and China.
Lula has drawn Brazil closer to China since taking office in early 2023; the two countries have signed dozens of accords on issues such as trade, technology and environmental protection. In November 2024, Brazil and China announced the elevation of their bilateral partnership to a “China-Brazil Community with a Shared Future for a Fairer World and a More Sustainable Planet.”
In contrast, the agenda proposed by Flávio Bolsonaro advocates stronger ties with the United States, which his father also pursued as president. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election, Brazil could seek to participate in the Trump administration’s Americas Shield; Lula refused to join.
“The election results could also influence Brazil’s approach to multilateralism. Lula’s government prioritized engagement with the Global South and used Brazil’s participation in groups like BRICS to advocate for a more multipolar international system. Bolsonaro, in turn, indicated a preference for bilateral relations — primarily with the United States, Argentina and Israel — and said he would reassess Brazil’s membership in BRICS if elected.”
The European Parliament think tank’s analysis also suggests that closer alignment with the United States under President Trump and reduced political engagement with China and the BRICS would be likely with Flávio’s victory.
It is recalled that, in a White House meeting in May 2025, Bolsonaro promised Trump that, under his presidency, Brazil would join the “Americas Shield,” the U.S. initiative with right-wing governments that share a view of fighting drug trafficking, including through the use of lethal military force.
“From a European perspective, particularly regarding the EU-Mercosur agreement, Bolsonaro’s stance on climate diplomacy is important. The agreement contains commitments to effectively implement the Paris Climate Agreement and to cooperate on the climate aspects of trade. A party may suspend the agreement if it considers that a serious violation occurred or if a party leaves the agreement. Additionally, Brazil has committed to stopping illegal deforestation, including in the Brazilian Amazon.”
The think tank notes that Observatório do Clima, a coalition of Brazilian civil society organizations, fears that Flávio Bolsonaro’s conservative interests could lead to a systematic rollback of environmental protections, echoing his father’s legacy.
