Amid the commotion over the three-year anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel, Israelis are approaching one of the most important parliamentary elections in their history, on October 27. And the uncertainty about the country’s political future only grows, as neither the Likud coalition (led by Benjamin Netanyahu) nor the opposition led by his opponents has yet shown the strength to win the seats necessary to govern.
The Israeli parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. To form a government, a party or coalition must secure at least 61 of these seats.
Recent polls have shown that the union between the Likud party (led by Netanyahu) and the ultra-Orthodox and far-right groups would capture between 49 and 52 seats. Its main challenger is the Yashar party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, which at the moment is able to lead an opposition with something close to 54 seats.
It is estimated that parties not aligned with either of these two forces could win between 12 and 17 seats in Parliament, according to the polls.
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Arab Parties
Thus, the future control of the Knesset would pass through the Arab minority parties in Israel – Ra’am and Joint List.
According to an analysis by the Arab Center in Washington, Eisenkot faces a dilemma: he needs these seats to reach a majority, but depending on them could alienate centrists and right-wing voters. And local headlines show that the Likud campaign is already trying to capitalize on this electoral vulnerability.
At the same time, Netanyahu’s party is pressing legal pressure against the Arab-majority signatories. In late September, Israel’s Central Election Committee disqualified all these parties from running in the October Knesset elections. But days later the Supreme Court unanimously overturned these prohibitions.
For analysts, this strategy by the prime minister is broader: “he seems to be working to prevent anyone else from forming a new government, keeping him as interim prime minister until Israel holds another round of elections,” says the Arab Center.
Indeed, under Israeli law, the outgoing government continues to govern the country until a new coalition is formed and sworn in.
History of Political Crises
This scenario is not new for Israel. Between April 2019 and November 2022, Israel held five elections. Netanyahu managed to remain prime minister for most of this period of political crisis, using various maneuvers to extend his mandate.
For example, in May 2019, faced with a deadlock like today, he pressed the Knesset to dissolve itself rather than stepping aside and allowing another parliamentarian the chance to form a government.
In 2020, Netanyahu formed a coalition with rival Benny Gantz under a power-sharing agreement that would presumably have given Gantz the post of prime minister in November 2021. Instead, the government collapsed in December 2020 after failing to pass a budget, triggering new elections and allowing Netanyahu to remain as interim prime minister until June 2021.
“In the end, Netanyahu doesn’t need to win the next election. He just needs to ensure that everyone else loses,” says the Washington think tank.
A key factor that Netanyahu has in his hands is that the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 remains a central issue for the majority of Israelis in their voting decision.
The Times of Israel reported a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) indicating that about 62% of Israelis attach importance to the issue in the elections, considering it the country’s main issue. This centrality of the issue among the majority of Jewish Israelis was twice what was recorded among the Arab minority.
According to the paper, the fragmentation of the Israeli political scene, including on issues such as judicial reform, ultra-Orthodox politics, the settler movement, and the role of Palestinian citizens in Israel, could also be decisive in determining what comes next.
