The deadly attacks this weekend on Riyadh’s main airport demonstrated the ability of Yemen’s Houthis to strike at the heart of Saudi power, increasing the risk of a dangerous escalation that could end up involving the United States.
Saturday’s attack (the 10th) killed 12 people and wounded 309 others. On Sunday (the 11th), the airport was hit again, this time by a projectile of unknown origin, marking the fourth attack in a week. Saudi fighter jets are already backing a counteroffensive by the Yemeni government forces after the Houthis seized territories near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a strategic point for global maritime transport at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
The Houthis had largely stayed on the margins since the start of the war between the US and Israel against Iran in February. But the latest offensive illustrates how the group, part of the so-called “axis of resistance” backed by Tehran, has transformed into an autonomous military force, with a sophisticated own supply chain of weapons and the capacity to act and escalate conflicts according to its own interests, at times coordinated with the Islamic Republic.
The attacks place Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, under growing pressure to intensify a war the country has been trying to disengage from for years, against an adversary that may be more capable than ever. They also create dilemmas for the US and for the kingdom’s new defense partners, Turkey and Pakistan, about how far they should go to help Riyadh respond.
“By intensifying the attacks, they are trying to pressure Saudi Arabia to back down and halt its air campaign,” said Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group. “Riyadh sees these attacks as a grave escalation, especially due to their unprecedented nature, and will likely respond with greater military pressure.”
The Saudi-led coalition blamed the Houthis for Saturday’s attack, calling it “a war crime on a large scale.” The group did not claim responsibility for this specific action, though it has claimed previous attacks and warned of new offensives against Saudi airports.
Saudi Arabia led a coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015 to restore the internationally recognized government, but spent years bombing the Houthis without defeating them. A UN-brokered truce in 2022 drastically reduced the fighting and offered Riyadh a pathway to scale back its involvement, while the Houthis’ military capabilities continued to grow.
A persistent threat
Saudi Arabia has spent billions of dollars to build one of the region’s most sophisticated armed forces, equipped with American F-15 fighter jets and Patriot missile defense systems, whose interceptors can cost up to $5 million each. Yet, successive attacks have closed the capital’s international airport, canceled hundreds of flights, and forced schools to switch to remote learning.
The attacks may signal the pressure the Houthis are facing within Yemen. After the group seized the port of Mokha on the Red Sea and areas near Bab el-Mandeb last month, Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive with air support from Saudi aircraft. According to the coalition, Mokha was retaken and dozens of Houthi military targets were destroyed.
“The Houthis are feeling the impact of the Saudi airstrikes carried out in recent days in areas under their control,” Nagi said. “They have lost a significant number of fighters, and several strategic sites were hit, including drone workshops, weapons depots and telecommunications towers.”
Even so, the Houthis still possess a stockpile of Iran-designed ballistic missiles capable of reaching Riyadh, as well as low-cost attack drones that can be assembled locally. The group has survived years of bombing campaigns conducted by Saudi Arabia and the US, and the recent attacks demonstrate how difficult it can be to prevent further damage to the kingdom.
“They seem to have cheap drones and missiles in quantities sufficient, in addition to the technical know-how required, to carry out long-range attacks against Saudi civilian infrastructure, which is a relatively vulnerable target,” said Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former member of the Pentagon’s strategy staff.
Pressure on Trump
The attacks also create dilemmas for Saudi Arabia’s allies, starting with the United States, which carried out large bombings against the Houthis last year before agreeing to a truce.
President Donald Trump has sought to avoid further military escalation with Iran ahead of the November congressional elections. So far, Washington has limited its support for the Saudi offensive to sharing intelligence.
“It is very unlikely that the Saudis will be able to stop these attacks if the US did not manage to, unless they deploy ground troops or drastically increase the capability of the Yemeni fighters they support,” Pettyjohn said. “Suppression requires constant air patrols in search of launchers, which is difficult. And the Yemenis seem to have used the US-ceasefire period to rearm.”
But, with an American citizen among those killed in Saturday’s attack, Trump faces growing pressure to act. Asked on Saturday about the possibility of the US participating in attacks against the Houthis, he replied: “Maybe. We’ll see.”
“Riyadh will want direct US strikes against the Houthis, enhanced air defense capabilities, greater intelligence sharing, and political cover for a more intense campaign in Yemen,” said William Usher, a former senior Middle East analyst at the CIA.
Economic impact
According to sources familiar with the matter, Saudi Arabia is frustrated with the limited assistance received from Western allies. The United Kingdom provided an aerial refueling aircraft, but Saudi requests for additional defensive support are still awaiting approval. France announced the delivery of defensive military equipment to the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The escalation also tests the Mecca Defense Alliance, a pact signed in August between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Both countries signaled willingness to send troops or arms to help defend the kingdom, though Turkey has ruled out taking part in offensives against the Houthis.
For Saudi Arabia, the Houthis’ success comes at a delicate moment. The country is preparing to host a series of events aimed at reinforcing its image as one of the world’s most attractive investment destinations. Among them is the Future Investment Initiative, known as the Desert Davos, which brings together heavyweight names from Wall Street, such as David Solomon of Goldman Sachs and Larry Fink of BlackRock.
Executives from major oil companies, including BP and Shell, canceled their participation in the World Petroleum Congress, which was to begin on Sunday, signaling that the attacks are already affecting business in Riyadh. The capital’s financial district, where the Saudi sovereign wealth fund and major banks and international consultancies are located, has also shifted to remote work.
The attacks come as the Middle East’s largest economy faces growing fiscal pressure after years of heavy spending on the Vision 2030 agenda, a economic transformation project led by Mohammed bin Salman. This month, the government raised its budget deficit projection and stated that the economy is likely to shrink by 3.6% this year, making the attraction of investment and external financing even more important.
“The recent events may cause some disruption to the flow of foreign investment, but investors and partners are not abandoning the country. They will watch the situation and wait for the opportunity to enter,” said Said El-Saadi, executive director of the consultancy Access KSA.
Still, Saudi leaders may conclude they have few alternatives but to escalate the conflict to end the attacks and restore stability.
“The Houthis have always been aggressive and willing to take risks,” said Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute. “They only retreat in the face of a credible threat and, so far, have not faced one.”
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