Around 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote this Tuesday (the 27th) to choose among 38 parties the composition of the 120 seats in the 25th Knesset, the country’s parliament, which is responsible for choosing the prime minister. Polls do not show a favored bloc to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority — neither among Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters nor among his opponents.
In the past, minority governments were formed — such as those led by Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, in 1993 and 1996 — even though the parties in their coalitions did not achieve this majority. However, this year the task of securing the support of parties outside the governing coalition or opposition is more complicated.
Although the election is crucial for reshaping the country’s political landscape, domestic and foreign policy concerns, the absence of a governing coalition with a majority after the vote could delay the decision to next year, when a new election would be held.
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Benjamin Netanyahu
The current prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the governing Likud party, will remain in office. As this will be Israel’s first election since Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, it would be natural for the vote to become a referendum on the prime minister’s performance during the crisis that led to the wars against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
But Netanyahu has suffered significant wear in recent years, targeted both by the opposition, which accuses him of some degree of responsibility for the terrorist attacks, and by the ultra-Orthodox, who oppose mandatory military service. The higher cost of living resulting from this conflict and the war against Iran are also taking their toll.
Oposição
The main opposition force to Netanyahu is the Yashar party, led by retired IDF General Gadi Eisenkot, which is expected to win more seats in this election but still well short of the 61 needed. Eisenkot is a decorated military strategist who retired in January 2019 after serving as chief of staff since 2015.
General Eisenkot spent four decades in the IDF, holding command posts in the Golani Brigade, the Bashan Armored Division, the Judea and Samaria Division, the IDF Operations Branch, and the Northern Command.
Even though he participated in the prime minister’s war cabinet in the early phase of the war against Hamas, he diverged and later broke with Netanyahu over issues such as the priority to be given to recovering the hostages from October 7 and the new front of combat in Lebanon.
Thus, both main sides of the dispute are opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state. And this makes it difficult for Arab minority parties in Israel — such as Ra’am and the Joint List — to enter any coalition.
The main actors in the Netanyahu bloc include National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, from the far-right Otzma Yehudit party; Aryeh Deri, the leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party; and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, from the joint list Religious Zionism-Zehut, on the libertarian nationalist line.
In the anti-Netanyahu bloc, besides Eisenkot are former prime minister Naftali Bennett, from Bennett 2026, and opposition leader Yair Lapid, from the centrist liberal Yesh Atid. To this group may also join Yair Golan, former deputy chief of staff of the IDF, from the Democrats; and former Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman, from Yisrael Beiteinu, whose base is largely secular and historically Russian-speaking.
Negotiations
For the think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the election outcome is hard to predict, both because there are divisions within Netanyahu’s coalition in the current Knesset and because the opposition bloc has yet to agree on a consensus name to succeed the prime minister.
Israel is known for prolonged coalition negotiations, and there is no reason to believe this election will be different. Small parties can emerge as major players in certain circumstances. Among them are Amcha Yisrael, led by retired IDF General Ofer Winter, and the center-right joint list Reservists-Economy, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha.
The CFR says there are three ways out of this mathematical confusion: a rotating government, with Eisenkot and Netanyahu swapping places after an agreed period; a coalition with Arab parties; or a union of forces with ultra-Orthodox parties.
