The two major American parties are at a crossroads. After a decade of reshaping the Republican Party in his own image, Donald Trump faces on Tuesday, the 3rd, the possibility of a voter rebellion, which could force conservatives to rethink their unconditional loyalty to the 80-year-old president in the waning days of his term.
Meanwhile the Democrats, who remain unpopular despite the election push, are moving toward an internal showdown between traditional leaders and a bolder, more progressive wing that demands transformative changes.
Regardless of victory or defeat, the elections mark the start of a battle for the political future of the U.S., in the twilight of the Trump era. This war will quickly move to the center of American politics as new members of Congress settle in Washington and the 2028 presidential race gains momentum.
“When Trump leaves office, a vast vacuum will be created. And the question that remains is: where will the country go?”, asked former Republican senator John Sununu, who is running for a Senate seat in New Hampshire.
More than any policy or principle, the most powerful unifying force in today’s Republican Party is Trump. Thus, as the party foresees the end of an era, great uncertainties arise about who will lead it going forward.
For a long time, Trump dismantled Ronald Reagan’s three-legged stool, which defined the Republican Party for generations: fiscal conservatism (advocating a smaller state and free trade), socially conservative values, and a proactive foreign policy. What remains today is a fluid populism that shifts with the president’s whims.
Bold businessman, Trump distanced the Republican Party from an elitist base, turning it toward a far broader coalition of working-class voters, including a share of the traditional Democratic base, such as Hispanics, Black voters and young people.
The strategist David Urban said he is watching closely whether Trump’s coalition will stay firm starting Tuesday. “When we see the result, it will tell us a lot about the future,” he said. “If all that electorate stays home – whether due to dissatisfaction with the economy, with the war or any other reason – there will be many questions about who will be the next big name to represent the party.”
Heirs
Much of the speculation within the Republican Party for 2028 centers on Vice President J.D. Vance, 42, who has moved from critic to faithful follower of Trump. He could face the challenge common to those who hold the second-highest office in the land, of building his own political identity independent of the president.
If the Republicans perform poorly, Vance’s chances as a presidential candidate could be harmed. Another name speculated for 2028, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, could also face a similar challenge.
On the other hand, the indecision could pave the way for Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, or perhaps even a declared critic of Trump like former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – who, at 64, is weighing a possible return to politics.
With few exceptions, Democratic leaders expect a good result on Tuesday, even if they do not win a majority in both Houses of Congress. However, there is no consensus about what comes next.
The party leadership celebrates the ascent of Representative Hakeem Jeffries, who, if the Democrats win the majority, could become the first Black Speaker of the House in U.S. history.
On the other hand, the frustrated progressive wing regards Jeffries and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer as part of the problem. They demand deep changes in both leadership and the policy directions guiding the party.
These demands are particularly strong among Democrats aligned with the organization called the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Currently, only two members backed by this group sit in the House. The number is expected to rise to at least seven in the new Congress, thanks to the success in the primaries of the slate of candidates endorsed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
The Michigan Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, would be another outspoken advocate of the far left, though he does not have the backing of the DSA nor does he identify as a socialist.
The Maryland Governor, Wes Moore, a Democrat regarded as a potential presidential contender who is seeking reelection on Tuesday, avoided saying whether he viewed the DSA’s presence in his party positively. Instead, he stated that he wants “sensible leaders, prepared to break with the status quo and able to act quickly to get things done.”
He reiterated that Democratic leadership needs to act with a sense of urgency. “We cannot be a party of ‘no’ and slowness. I want to be part of a party of ‘yes’ and ‘now’,” Moore said. “I want to be part of a party that is deeply impatient to deliver the kind of results we expect, as well as the things we want to see for our families.”
Moore’s rhetoric aligns with the activist, engaged wing of the Democratic Party. However, it is almost certain they will disagree on the tactics needed to counter Trump and his allies in Congress. Moreover, the far-left wing of the party may gain even more voice after the elections.
Corbin Trent, a former aide to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, said that Tuesday marks a new beginning, offering Democrats a tremendous opportunity to push transformative changes in areas such as health care, housing, and infrastructure, among other key issues. However, he is not optimistic and believes party bosses are not up to the challenge.
Meanwhile, Trump will remain in office for two more years, regardless of whether his party suffers major defeats. And, even politically weakened, he will remain a dominant force in Republican politics and in the race for the next presidential nomination.
“Until the last breath of Donald Trump, he will continue to loom over the Republican Party as the Colossus of Rhodes,” Urban said, referring to the ancient Greek statue that depicted Helios, the sun god.
