With early voting underway in the United States, the midterm elections are reaching the final stretch amid a climate of anxiety among voters who have already gone to the polls. Many describe the sense that “the America they knew is disappearing” and cite—from perceptions of “illegality” among politicians to the influence of billionaires—and, above all, the impact of the cost of living, with gasoline at the center of complaints.
Tomorrow, Americans will elect a new Congress: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for grabs. The Republican Party currently controls both chambers, but enters the election under pressure from the low popularity of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Commerzbank notes that the president’s approval stands at 38%, with 60% disapproval, resulting in a net balance of -22%. In the bank’s assessment, inflation is a decisive factor. According to Commerzbank, Trump would have failed to keep his promise to lower prices “on the first day,” and his policies—tariffs and the war with Iran, which pushed energy prices higher—helped rekindle inflationary pressures. The analysis also mentions that rents, food, and fuels have taken center stage in the campaign, while the Democratic Party is betting on the cost of living.
Polls indicate elevated risk for Republicans, especially in the House. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections—about 20 on average since 1950. Now, with a narrow Republican majority of four seats, polls suggest that the Democrats could gain at least 20 seats and take control of the chamber.
In the Senate, the contest has also tightened for Republicans in recent weeks, including signals of a turnaround in Texas, a traditional conservative stronghold. The picture appears in the latest polls: a survey by the New York Times in partnership with the Siena Research Institute (SRI), released on November 1, shows Democrats ahead in five of the seven swing states analyzed for the Senate.
On the eve of the election, Trump minimized the numbers and said that “he has never met anyone” interviewed by polling firms. He stated that at a rally, only two people raised their hands when asked whether they had been consulted. He also declared that he would veto “everything” if the Democrats win, and when asked about election security, he replied that he does not believe the elections will be secure.
Yesterday, American justice dismissed a lawsuit filed by the Trump administration seeking to prevent Alaska from certifying a possible defeat of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in the election, arguing there was a risk voters could be misled while voting, as there is a candidate with the same name.
The ING notes that betting sites assign Democrats a 70% to 72% chance of winning the House and Senate. The bank cautions that part of the readings about immediate effects is speculative, but notes that a Democratic victory could press the dollar, since it would likely lead to a debt ceiling impasse, a prolonged government shutdown next year, and could prompt Trump to pursue an even more interventionist foreign policy agenda.
Commerzbank also warns of the risk of a shutdown, since government funding runs only until December 11. The bank notes that if Democrats take the Senate beyond the House, Trump’s ability to influence the Fed would be limited, since House approval is needed to fill vacancies on the monetary authority’s board. The bank also mentions, as a low-probability scenario but “more than zero,” the possibility of contesting the results, with waves of lawsuits and protests, which could affect institutional confidence. As early voting continues to be cast, projections point to a more divided Congress—and to a phase in which, amid inflation, budget standoffs and external tensions, the post-election period may matter as much as the outcome.
*With information from the Associated Press (AP).
