In the pages of history, a “kingmaker” is a person or group capable of defining political impasses and giving backing to one side in a dispute — to the point of deciding who will assume power. The Roman Praetorian Guard is the best-known example, for helping to crown and topple Caesars for about 300 years. In Israel’s latest election, held this week, Arab parties managed to secure a number of seats in parliament capable of turning them into “kingmakers.” The problem is that the backing of these forces is not desired by either the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, or his opponents.
The Israeli parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. To form a government, a party or coalition of parties must guarantee at least 61 of these seats, something none of the country’s political forces has achieved since 1948. Hence the need to negotiate coalitions that allow governability.
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In the last parliamentary election, in 2022, the forces around Netanyahu gave him a 68-seat majority. However the weariness from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and the war against Iran have exacted a heavy political and economic price domestically in Israel, which reduced the prime minister’s power.
In Tuesday’s election, the 27th, the sum of votes for the Likud party and its allies guaranteed a potential level of 53 seats, while the opposition within the sphere of the Yashar party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, should have won 48 seats.
A strong turnout at the polls by Arab-Israelis — about 80% — left the “Arab parties” with a potential 19 seats — a record — which would place the group as a natural “kingmaker.” However, this group is divided: on one side is the Islamist Ra’am and on the other is a joint list uniting Hadash (Arab-Jewish and communist-leaning), Balad (Palestinian nationalist) and Ta’al (Arab nationalist).
Regarding possible negotiations to include these parties in the government, the possibility was never in the plans of Likud, which ruled out this suggestion throughout the campaign.
This behavior was only reinforced by Netanyahu in the last days, who alleged foreign interference for the Arab parties’ performance higher than expected. The prime minister accused without evidence that the Qatari regime invested large sums to empower this political group and demanded an investigation by Shin Bet, Israel’s Security Agency.
Although Gadi Eisenkot criticized Netanyahu for these remarks, saying that he would be attempting to delegitimize the elections, he too cannot openly negotiate a government composition with the Arab forces, for the risk of losing support within his bloc.
But even among Israel’s Arab parties there is no consensus. In a recent article published by Tel Aviv University, Yusri Hazran is a senior professor at Shalem College, who analyzed that Arab politics in Israel has never been as divided as today.
Both the formal political arena (of political parties) and the popular arena oscillate between two ideas. One sees the nationalist issue as the key to normalizing relations between the State and Arab society.
The other is represented by Ra’am and emerged in the last two decades, having relentlessly pursued change. “They demonstrate an unconditional pragmatic willingness to join any coalition in order to advance the local interests of Arab society. This school does not deny their Palestinian national identity, but does not consider this identity as the decisive factor in determining the nature of the relations of Arab society with the State,” he explained.
A study from the Konrad Adenauer Program for Judaeo-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center of TAU reveals that a large majority (73.2%) of Arab citizens of Israel support the inclusion of an Arab party in the government that will be formed after the elections — 41.8% support entry into any government formed and 31.4% support entry into a center-left government.
