Bitcoin has resumed its rise. Since August 17, 2026, BTC’s price has gained nearly 30%, rising above $81,000 on August 25, 2026. A movement particularly notable for a cryptocurrency that has emerged from several difficult months and which remains well below its all-time high of over $126,000 in October 2025.
What remains to be seen is how far this rebound in BTC’s price can go. The return of institutional investors, flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs, or the evolution of regulation could continue to support Bitcoin’s price.
But the scenario of a continued rise in Bitcoin is far from guaranteed and several risks could quickly change the game. In this context, how high can Bitcoin actually rise in 2026? We have analyzed the different possible scenarios and the price levels to watch closely for Bitcoin’s price through the end of 2026.
Why is Bitcoin’s price rising in 2026?
This rise in Bitcoin’s price had been expected by crypto investors for some time. And for good reason: since May 2026, Bitcoin’s trend had been rather disappointing, with Bitcoin’s price struggling to regain a genuine upward momentum. The rebound in mid-August is therefore good news for BTC holders. But beyond the enthusiasm sparked by this rise, one must mainly seek to understand what explains it. Several factors are currently combining to support Bitcoin’s price, some directly linked to the crypto market, others to the broader economic and financial environment.
What are the factors supporting Bitcoin’s price in 2026?
The rise in Bitcoin observed since mid-August 2026 is not based on a single element. Several macroeconomic, regulatory, and crypto-market-specific factors are currently combining to support BTC’s price.
| Bitcoin price drivers | Avis Café de la Bourse |
| A more favorable liquidity environment | Expectations of a less restrictive American monetary policy and a loosening of rates support risk assets. Bitcoin remains particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions in financial markets. |
| A weaker dollar | A decline in the dollar and concerns about US debt bolster interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin, especially in a logic of protection against currency depreciation. |
| The return of capital to Spot Bitcoin ETFs | After several tougher months, flows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recovered. Nearly $2 billion flowed into these ETFs in five sessions in August 2026, creating additional demand for BTC. |
| The massive covering of short positions | The speed of the rebound caught investors who were betting on a decline in Bitcoin off guard. About $3 billion of short positions on cryptocurrencies are said to have been liquidated in two days, which mechanically amplified the rise. |
| The return of big investors | After selling part of their positions in recent months, some “whales,” i.e., holders of large amounts of Bitcoin, have started accumulating BTC again. A change in behavior that is a rather favorable signal. |
| A more favorable regulatory framework in the United States | Progressive clarification of cryptocurrency rules in the United States reduces part of the regulatory risk and facilitates institutional exposure to Bitcoin. |
What factors could slow Bitcoin’s rise in 2026?
While several elements currently support Bitcoin’s price, the bullish scenario remains fragile. BTC remains a highly volatile asset and some of the factors fueling the rebound today could reverse quickly.
| Downside factors | Avis Café de la Bourse |
| More restrictive US monetary policy | If inflation were to pick up again, the Fed could keep rates elevated longer than expected. Higher real rates generally reduce the appeal of risk assets and can weigh on Bitcoin. |
| Outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs | ETFs can support demand, but the mechanism also works the other way. Significant outflows would force funds to sell BTC and could heighten a market correction. |
| A return of risk-off on markets | Recession, geopolitical tensions, or a sharp stock market correction: in stressed periods, investors tend to reduce exposure to the most volatile assets. Bitcoin usually does not escape these risk-off moves. |
| Profit-taking after the rebound | A rise of almost 30% in a few days can prompt some investors to lock in gains. The closer Bitcoin gets to important resistance zones, the more meaningful profit-taking can become. |
| New selling by large holders | Whales, as well as certain companies or historic holders, possess enough BTC to weigh on the available supply. A renewed selling by them would be a negative signal, especially if demand slows at the same time. |
| Stricter regulation or taxation | Despite a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies in the United States, a regulatory change in a major economy, tighter taxation, or new restrictions could quickly weigh on investor sentiment. |
| Excess leverage in the crypto market | Leverage can accelerate a rally but can also make a correction much harsher. If too many investors hold leveraged positions, a relatively modest drop in BTC could trigger cascading liquidations and amplify the move. |
Could Bitcoin’s shrinking supply push BTC higher?
Bitcoin’s rise could also be supported by the shrinking supply of BTC actually available for sale. A growing share of bitcoins is being held long-term by individuals, companies, or institutional investors, while Spot Bitcoin ETFs are also absorbing part of the supply available on the market.
This phenomenon matters because Bitcoin’s price depends not only on the total number of BTC that exist but mainly on the balance between bitcoins offered for sale and buyers’ demand. Unlike a traditional asset, an increase in demand cannot quickly increase BTC production: new BTC issuance is fixed by the protocol and has remained capped since the 2024 halving. If demand continues to rise while few holders are willing to sell, this dwindling of available supply can create substantial upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Can states and their strategic reserves support Bitcoin’s price?
States could also play a role in Bitcoin demand. The United States notably created in 2025 a strategic Bitcoin reserve, initially comprising BTC seized by federal authorities. Other countries are also weighing the place Bitcoin could occupy in their reserves.
In the short term, the impact on the price remains limited. But if several states eventually decide to buy BTC directly, a new source of demand would then face an already limited supply, with potential upward pressure on the price.
Bitcoin analysis: How high can Bitcoin rise in the short term?
From a technical analysis standpoint, since June 2026 Bitcoin had been operating in an unfavorable setup, with BTC trading around $63,000 and struggling to regain genuine bullish momentum. The market was moving in a kind of trading range, around 50% below Bitcoin’s all-time high.
The rebound started on August 17, 2026 completely changed the chart’s look. With an increase of nearly 30%, BTC quickly returned to test the resistance zone between $78,600 and $82,200, built around the major psychological threshold of $80,000. The first barrier was breached, but Bitcoin has not yet managed to sustainably exceed $82,200.
This is probably the most important technical level to watch right now on BTC. As long as Bitcoin’s price does not decisively break out of this zone, it seems premature to talk about a true uptrend. A confirmed break above $82,200 would change the game and could allow BTC to target again $100,000, and then possibly its all-time high around $126,000.
Conversely, a failure to clear this resistance could trigger profit-taking after the August 2026 surge. A first support appears around $75,000 for Bitcoin, but it remains relatively fragile. Below that, $66,500 would be a much more significant level for BTC as it also corresponds to the upper bound of the old consolidation region. Finally, a return to $63,000 would constitute the last major support before a much more concerning deterioration of Bitcoin’s technical setup.
Short-term technical analysis of Bitcoin price
Bitcoin Forecast: how far can BTC rise in the medium and long term?
On the long-term chart, $80,000 and $63,000 remain the two levels to watch most closely for Bitcoin. There are also more distant supports around $49,000 and $40,000, as well as the former highs near $126,000. At this stage, these levels are too far from the current price to be truly decisive.
What mainly attracts our attention is the downward channel in which Bitcoin is still moving. BTC is approaching its upper boundary today. A move back toward $85,000 in September or October 2026 would allow it to exit and would give a very different reading of the chart. Bitcoin could then settle into a slightly bullish trend. Nothing drastic in this scenario: simply following the trajectory of this new channel, BTC would return to around $100,000 by January 2028.
However, one should maintain a degree of caution with this type of projection. A chart provides possible levels and trajectories, not a certain forecast of Bitcoin’s price. The fundamentals, liquidity, and investor behavior can speed up or undermine this scenario for BTC. The sharp rise seen in recent days is a good example.
Long-term technical analysis of Bitcoin price
What are the main technical levels of Bitcoin to watch in 2026
To summarize our technical analysis, here are the main price levels of Bitcoin to watch in 2026, whether the trend continues higher or a new correction develops.
| Type of technical level | Bitcoin price (USD) | Avis Café de la Bourse |
| Major resistance | 124,000 – 126,000 $ | Bitcoin’s all-time high zone and primary target in case of a return of a strong uptrend |
| Resistance / psychological threshold | 100,000 $ | Symbolic level that could become an important target again if the uptrend is confirmed |
| Major resistance | 78,600 – 82,200 $ | Zone currently being worked around the $80,000 mark. A durable breach would significantly strengthen the bullish scenario |
| Minor support | 75,000 $ | First level likely to curb a correction, but support still relatively fragile |
| Major support | 66,500 $ | Key technical level also corresponding to the upper bound of the old consolidation zone |
| Major support | 63,000 $ | Key medium- and long-term level. A return below this threshold would severely degrade the technical setup |
| Long-term support | 49,000 $ | Distant support, to monitor only in the event of a much deeper correction |
| Long-term support | 40,000 $ | Last major support zone identified on the long-term chart in a strongly bearish scenario |
What are the forecasts from major banks, institutions, and financial players for Bitcoin in 2026?
After several difficult months for Bitcoin, the rebound observed in August 2026 brings back into focus the forecasts of major financial institutions. And while scenarios vary widely, several top players still anticipate a significant rise in BTC’s price in 2026.
| Institution / figure | Bitcoin forecast | Horizon | Forecast date |
| Standard Chartered – Geoff Kendrick | $100,000 | End of 2026 | 19-Aug-26 |
| $125,000 | End of 2026 | 26-Aug-26 | |
| Citigroup | $82,000 scenario central / $53,000 bearish scenario | 12 months | 30-Jun-26 |
| ARK Invest | Bitcoin market capitalization around $16 trillion | 2030 | Big Ideas 2026 |
The spreads among these forecasts mainly show how much Bitcoin’s outlook remains dependent on the assumptions chosen. Standard Chartered and Bernstein are betting on a favorable liquidity environment and sustained institutional demand, while Citi is notably more cautious about future flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the longer term, ARK Invest remains among the most optimistic on institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
These targets obviously do not guarantee BTC price outcomes, but are scenarios built on assumptions that can evolve rapidly.
Should you still invest in Bitcoin in 2026? Café de la Bourse’s View
In our view, Bitcoin still has a card to play in 2026. Several elements studied in this analysis point in a favorable direction and lead us to favor, for the coming months, a rather bullish scenario. That does not mean the path will be without hurdles.
The opposite scenario remains entirely possible: a shift in market context could quickly dampen current enthusiasm. We remain optimistic about Bitcoin, but not at any price or with any level of risk. For an investor, the question now is as much how high BTC can rise as how much volatility they are willing to endure.
How to invest in Bitcoin in practice?
To buy Bitcoin easily, you can go through an online broker like eToro. After opening and funding your account on eToro, simply search for Bitcoin (BTC), choose the amount to invest, and place a buy order.
One of eToro’s advantages is the ability to buy Bitcoin directly from the same platform used for stock market investing, with an interface accessible to both beginners and experts. eToro offers more than 150 crypto assets and also allows eligible cryptocurrencies to be transferred to the eToro Money wallet. Crypto transaction fees start at 1% per position, with rates potentially reduced depending on the level of the eToro Club the investor has joined.
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