A sequence of drone attacks against merchant ships in the Black Sea, off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria — both members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) — has, in October 2026, raised fears that Russia is seeking a calculated escalation to test the alliance’s willingness to sustain Ukraine.
At least seven commercial vessels were struck in the exclusive economic zones of the two European countries, threatening an important global maritime route, with two deaths confirmed and at least 25 missing.
Moscow has repeatedly bombarded Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and on the Danube River, forcing Kyiv to rely more on alternative routes to export grains to markets in Africa and the Middle East amid the conflict with Ukraine. Russian drones have also violated Romanian airspace several times near some Ukrainian ports on the Danube.
In the most recent incidents, fires damaged two ships after drone attacks on Wednesday and Thursday, with one of them occurring in Romanian territorial waters. In Brussels, Romania’s president, Nicusor Dan, said that “two drones” hit the vessels, without attributing responsibility, but warned that “there will be a response from the Romanian state.”
Nevertheless, suspicions about Russia grow. Bulgaria’s Prime Minister, Rumen Radev, told Parliament that it would not make sense for Ukraine to attack ships and crews tied to its own exports and that the outcome of the attacks benefits Russia — although he admitted that the problem is the lack of conclusive evidence.
The attacks rekindled the debate about the limits of Article 5, the NATO collective defense clause under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. The alliance’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte, said on Thursday that he had met with Radev and Nicusor Dan to discuss security in the Black Sea. Rutte also stated that the organization has strengthened its stance on the eastern border, including with greater drone defense capability, and that it will continue to adjust deterrence and defense as needed.
Yet Romanian defense analyst Radu Tudor stated that it is uncertain whether attacks occurring in exclusive economic zones fall within the typical scope of a response of the Article 5 type, since they do not necessarily involve sovereign territory in the same legal sense. For him, this raises questions and would indicate that NATO has been slow to respond in the Black Sea, in a scenario where incidents multiply and Russia approaches the alliance’s borders.
An official from Romania’s defense sector spoken to by the AP, not authorized to speak publicly, said he believes the attacks aim to economically harm Ukraine and that “Romania is not the target right now,” but he reported that authorities frequently find debris and signs of drones at sea and on beaches. The same source said he had heard that Turkey would like to convene the littoral Black Sea countries to plan a convoy escort mission through a militarized safe corridor, but emphasized the risks and difficulties of the absence of adequate defense systems.
In parallel, Bulgaria’s Ministry of Defense said that the country plans to join NATO’s Drone Edge project by the end of October 2026, launched in July and in which Romania also participates, with the goal of investing more than $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years. In July, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey expanded the naval pact of the Mine Countermeasures Task Force in the Black Sea to include the protection of critical underwater infrastructure. Source: Associated Press.
