China has rapidly expanded its production of nuclear-powered submarines, surpassing the United States in the number of launches and tonnage in 2021–25. The finding was published on the blog of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). In the period analyzed, China also expanded its shipbuilding facilities.
According to the experts who sign the study, while Chinese designs are almost certainly behind US and European submarines in terms of quality, the greater number of units at sea represents a growing challenge for these countries, as they strive to boost their own production.
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IISS reveals that, between 2021 and 2025, China produced 10 submarines, while the US built seven vessels. In the previous five-year period (2016-220), the US led, with 7 vessels against only 3 Chinese.
Nuclear submarine production over five-year periods: China vs. US
In tonnage, the Chinese totaled 79,000 in 2021-2025, ante 55,500 dos americanos, diz o relatório, que analisou imagens de satélite de estaleiros para estimar a construção da China.
The Institute noted that China included in its latest list its seventh and eighth nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) of Type 094 (Jin), which are part of Beijing’s nuclear triad.
China’s nuclear submarines are built by Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, at its yard in Huludao, in the north of the country. Between 2019 and 2022, Bohai’s yard underwent a significant expansion of its submarine production capacity, with the construction of a second hangar and other facilities, the study says.
Commercial satellite images, available in early 2026 – from the Huludao yard, the 1st Submarine Base in Jianggezhuang, the testing facility in Xiaopingdao, and the 2nd Submarine Base in Yalong Bay, on Hainan Island – show a total of six Type 094 submarine hulls. Taking into account additional units on deterrence patrol or in a covered dock for maintenance during this period, it is almost certain that China launched a seventh and an eighth Type 094 in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
While the Chinese pace has accelerated, the think tank notes that US submarines are significantly larger and more sophisticated than the Chinese designs, which makes them more challenging to build.
“Moreover, while it is possible to observe the production of Chinese shipbuilding, inputs — both financial and personnel — remain opaque. There is also no visibility on the dates and costs originally projected by Beijing to achieve certain objectives, which were very likely more ambitious than the results achieved so far,” the Institute says in its blog.
While the US Navy has primarily used its submarines equipped with VLS, including the latest Virginia-class models, to carry land-attack cruise missiles, the People’s Liberation Army Navy has yet to publicly demonstrate an equivalent capability.
“Instead, the Type 093B hulls are likely to be initially equipped with at least one of the new high-speed anti-ship missiles shown at China’s ‘Victory Day’ parade in September 2025. This would be consistent with the PLA Navy’s primary focus on peer naval warfare in the Western Pacific, in contrast to the broader expeditionary power projection mission that the US Navy has carried out for decades,” the experts explain.
A new submarine design, the Type 096, is also expected to begin production at Bohai this decade, entering service in the late 2020s or the early 2030s.
