The decision by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to leave Brazil and head for the United States shortly after the ruling by Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to seize his passports is expected to open a new chapter in the already unstable relationship between Brasília and Washington, with implications for the Lula government (PT) and Argentina’s Javier Milei.
According to Rubens Barbosa, former Brazilian ambassador to Washington, Flávio’s move to American territory to join his brother, former deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, should serve to sharpen the political maneuvering of the opposition bloc represented by the Bolsonaro family against the Lula administration, reverberating in the Brazil–U.S. relationship.
“Flávio’s trip to the United States will intensify their political action, with reactions here in Brazil. The relationship will become more tense between Brazil and the United States,” Barbosa explains in an interview with InfoMoney.
“From what the news has shown, Flávio spent the entire day [Tuesday, 27/10] watching all this fallout, including regarding the role of the right in Brazil. And he, despite everything, despite all the reaction, including from people connected to him, decided to leave the country. This is another important factor,” says Barbosa, who currently heads the Institute of International Relations and Foreign Trade (Irice).
The American Uncertainty
Under the Trump administration, the White House has intensified its eagerness to explore critical minerals and rare earths in various regions. Brazil, which has the second-largest global reserve of rare earths, according to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), is a key player in this market.
Aware of China’s dominance over these minerals, the United States has been seeking ways to reduce reliance on Beijing in a strategic area for sectors such as defense and technological supremacy.
Recently, a U.S. government agency signed a financing deal of US$565 million with Serra Verde, a rare-earths producing company based in Goiás. When he was still a pre-candidate, Flávio, during a visit to the U.S., said that Brazil would be “the solution for the United States to break its dependence on China for critical minerals, especially rare earths.”
Lula, for his part (and on more than one occasion), has defended the idea that the American approach to the issue has bypassed cooperation, and that the exploration model proposed by Trump could put national sovereignty at risk. Domestically, the Planalto Palace sees room to sign deals on critical minerals and rare earths with the United States during Lula’s fourth term. However, the idea is that negotiations, if they advance, should be conducted taking into account Brazil’s strategic interest in its own resources.
Since the results of the second round last Sunday (the 25th), Trump has claimed, without evidence, that the Brazilian election had been rigged. Yet, the Republican has emphasized that he has a good relationship with Lula. In a move opposite to that of most leaders of the world’s major powers, Trump has avoided recognizing the results of Brazilian ballots.
Barbosa notes that the episode of Flávio’s trip to the United States should lead “to an increase in frictions and a diplomatic-political crisis with the United States,” propelled by the tariff barriers imposed by the Trump administration on a list of Brazilian products. The diplomat notes that the degree of deterioration will become evident “over the coming weeks and months.”
As a consequence of the United States’ more hostile tariff policy toward Brazilian goods, trade between Brazil and China has reached unprecedented figures. According to data from the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC), the trade flow between the two countries reached US$143 billion in the year-to-date period from January to September 2026. Brazilian exports grew 12% compared to the same period last year, while imports rose 9.9%
In the balance, the surplus for Brazil reached US$26.1 billion. Part of this comes from increased Brazilian oil exports to China. Chinese customs data released on the 20th showed that, from January to September 2026, China imported 44.29 million tons of Brazilian oil. Given the turmoil that the US–Israel war against Iran has caused in the global energy chain, Brazil ended up surpassing Saudi Arabia in supplying oil to the Asian country.
Argentina, the Antechamber to Flávio’s Move to the United States
After hours of speculation about the whereabouts of the former presidential candidate, Argentina’s Migration Directorate confirmed that Flávio and his family entered the country at 10:50 p.m. last Tuesday, heading to Ecuador and, finally, to Miami. The route avoided Brazilian airspace.
One of the issues the Federal Police (PF) will have to clear up during the investigation into the movements of the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) concerns how it was possible to cross the border with Argentina under the conditions in which he was.
For Barbosa, this element could weigh negatively on the relationship between the two main economies of South America, which has already been marked by problems.
This year, after Milei visited São Paulo to participate in the launch of Flávio’s candidacy, the Argentinian leader directed insults at Lula, prompting the Brazilian government to summon Argentina’s ambassador in Brazil, Daniel Raimondi, to provide clarification.
“This is a factor. Flávio’s exit through Argentina, with apparent support from the Milei government, and the arrival in the United States, also with the blessing of the American government. These two things will have consequences for the bilateral relationship,” the diplomat assessed.
