Scientists project that Earth’s global temperatures will stay up to 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, largely due to the current “Super El Niño” that began in June and is expected to last until February 2027. As a result, the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects up to 451 thousand heat-related deaths worldwide in the first half of this El Niño— 239 thousand more deaths than would be expected for a normal year, without the impacts of the climate event.
For Brazil, 13.3 thousand deaths are expected in the six months from September to February, 8 thousand more than in a normal year.
In the top 10 of the countries most affected by heat-related deaths in the period, Brazil ranks fifth, behind Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan and India.
Also read: Super El Niño raises risks in a world with an already erratic water cycle, says WMO
As current projections suggest that El Niño will persist through spring 2027 in the Northern Hemisphere, the Climate Impact Lab’s report says numbers are expected to grow even further, particularly because impacts such as above-average temperatures and heat-related deaths will persist through June and July of next year.
According to the analysis, the heat-related deaths yet to come this year will hit the Global South harder. The countries most affected across the African Sahel are expected to record 66,800 additional heat deaths from September to February compared with a normal year, with nearly half of these losses occurring in Nigeria (31,400).
In other parts of the region, Sudan will face 17,500 additional heat deaths, Niger will have 10,000 deaths and Chad 8,000. In Southeast Asia, heat is expected to cause 19,400 additional deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and 19,300 deaths in Indonesia. Other highly impacted regions in the next six months include India (15,800) and Brazil (13,300).
According to the report, the projections form an evidence base that enables adaptation interventions to save lives and improve human well-being. Among the proposed solutions to mitigate the estimated effects are upfront funding, heat early warning systems and heat action plans that allow health professionals to direct home visits to vulnerable populations.
Also suggested are expanding water availability, monitoring heat-related symptoms, and greater access to cooling technologies.
