This month, discover how a financial analyst thinks and what this can concretely bring you to invest more effectively in the stock market.
Café de la Bourse invites you to dive into the behind-the-scenes of asset management through the testimony of Aurélien Lux, a financial analyst at Galilee AM.
Key indicators, risk management, market interpretation, and current sentiment: all valuable lessons to refine your investment decisions.
Aurélien Lux, what role do you hold? What inspired you to pursue a career as a financial analyst?
I hold the role of analyst and assistant-manager at Galilee Asset Management. It is a demanding and transversal position that allows me to work across all listed asset classes: stocks, funds, ETFs, bonds, derivatives and structured products.
My work rests on three pillars. First, macroeconomic and financial analysis: I follow the major economic and geopolitical dynamics, such as the realignments tied to Donald Trump’s return to the United States, to measure their repercussions on markets, asset classes and companies. The aim is not merely to describe movements, but to build well-argued investment convictions and to position oneself: buy, hold or sell.
Next, the management itself. As an assistant-manager, I support the team in implementing allocations: stock selection, arbitrage, portfolio construction and monitoring. It is a field of responsibility that requires owning one’s ideas, respecting each client’s risk profile, and staying cool-headed in periods of volatility.
Finally, there is communication. Explaining our approach, presenting our performance, and making our market interpretation legible are essential to establish a relationship of trust with our clients and, more broadly, to play an educational role.
At first, I was heading towards economic journalism, driven by my interest in economics and geopolitics. Then I wanted to move from observation to action. Asset management offered me this natural extension: translating a worldview into investment choices and owning the results. What I enjoy today is this balance between analysis, strategy and pedagogy, in the service of a human relationship with clients.
What is the most defining event of your career as a financial analyst?
The most defining event of my early career remains Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. At the time, I was on a gap internship at Galilee Asset Management, the house that gave me my chance and truly threw me into the deep end of the markets.
Beyond markets, the first shock was human and political: the return of large-scale war to Europe, for a generation that had known this type of conflict only in history books. Very quickly, I grasped the geopolitical implications: redefining energy balances, increased fragmentation of global trade, rising tensions between blocs.
Most of all, I was struck by the speed with which these issues translated into economic and financial consequences. The war amplified the return of inflation after more than a decade of low rates and ultra-accommodative monetary policies. The surge in energy and commodity prices accelerated a macroeconomic regime change already germinating, and central banks began a rapid and synchronized tightening cycle.
In a few months, allocation models, risk premia, and correlations between assets were upended. I understood how markets are not an abstract universe, but the direct reflection of political, energy and social dynamics. This period taught me humility in the face of uncertainty, the importance of risk management, and the responsibility borne by an asset manager.
What is your favorite indicator? How is it useful to the investor?
My favorite indicator is the VIX, the “fear index.” It measures the implied volatility expected on the S&P 500 from options, and provides a view of market expectations rather than just the past. It is a thermometer of investor anxiety or confidence.
The interesting thing is how the VIX reacts to very different shocks: political decisions, macroeconomic data, geopolitical crises. We saw it during the introduction of new American tariffs in spring 2025, during the pronounced moves in the USD/JPY pair in early 2026 that threaten the carry trade, or during episodes of tension in the Middle East: sometimes stock indices hold up, but the VIX reveals rising concern beneath the surface.
The VIX is also an entry point into behavioral finance. A very low and sustained level can signal a form of complacency, while a violent spike often reflects an emotional reaction rather than a lasting deterioration of fundamentals. It pushes to distinguish what relates to real risk and what relates to risk perception.
Finally, the VIX has become a standalone investment asset, with derivatives and ETFs that allow positioning on volatility. It is useful for hedging, but dangerous if one underestimates the complexity of these instruments: sensitivity to the term structure, roll effects, risks of rapid losses. For me, the VIX remains first and foremost a tool for reading the deeper mechanisms of the market, before becoming a playground for speculation.
What is your current market sentiment? What to expect in the coming weeks?
The start of 2026 extends the questions from the end of 2025, around two major axes: the real profitability of investments in artificial intelligence and the trajectory of American monetary policy. On one hand, a still-robust US job market sustains the Fed’s status quo and complicates visibility on the pace of rate cuts, in a context of rising US public debt. On the other hand, some AI-related stocks show valuations already incorporating a very optimistic scenario. Indeed, AI is reshuffling the deck between winners and losers, including in sectors like insurance or software, and raises questions about the sustainability of business models.
Geopolitical risks complete this picture: tensions in Venezuela, strategic issues around Greenland, and more broadly fragmentation between blocs. We are exactly at the intersection of the economy, geopolitics, and politics.
Concerns differ by region: in the United States, the debate centers on inflation and AI valuation; in Europe, on public debt and weak growth; in China, on deflation risk and weak demand. This argues for more diversified allocations that can include emerging economies and alternative supports.
Despite these uncertainties, I remain broadly optimistic, provided one does not get hypnotized by a few big AI names. Entire segments of the market remain neglected, notably small and mid caps, which offer opportunities for investors. We favor themes that benefit from AI without being at the heart of speculation, such as the energy ecosystem of data centers, particularly clean energy, a strong trend since the second half of 2025 despite climate-skepticism returning to the White House. The challenge is to maintain a long-term vision, clear convictions and solid risk discipline.
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