The use of the word “disaster” by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz after the regional elections on Sunday (the 21st) was neither exaggerated nor imprecise. As had happened two weeks earlier in Saxony-Anhalt, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered two more defeats: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) repeated the previous feat, winning in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and the left-wing Die Linke received the most votes in Berlin.
For experts, Germans have permanently lost patience with the center-right CDU/SPD coalition, which has become squeezed between more extreme positions. For the German Marshall Fund (GMF), the think tank, voters delivered a brutal indictment of their displeasure with the performance of the national government.
Yesterday’s votes made clear that the pro-right outcome in Saxony-Anhalt was not an anomaly, but the beginning of a trend in the eastern part of the country, a trend that was confirmed in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Also read: Chancellor Merz fights for survival after record electoral defeat in Germany
“Contrary to what is sometimes assumed, the problem for the CDU is not that it never established roots in the East — it governed Saxony continuously since reunification and led Saxony-Anhalt for decades — but rather that its roots there have disintegrated,” says a GMF article.
In Berlin, a related story unfolded. The left-wing Die Linke nearly doubled its share of the vote from the previous election and won for the first time. With that, it could, for the first time, lead a coalition government in the capital.
The assessment is that the party’s performance was built more on public anger about the cost of living and housing than on any of the party’s ideological proposals. It was also noted that the left secured nearly half of the votes among the younger population, aged 16 to 34.
There is much discussion now about the impact that the loss of political strength by Friedrich Merz could have on Germany’s reform agenda, on the country’s power within the European Union, and on the democratic center’s proposals worldwide.
Why is regional election important?
Germany possesses a genuinely collaborative federal system in which the states have a strong constitutional position, including in relation to European Union matters. Regional governments, both individually and collectively, exercise their constitutional rights with resolve and vigilant oversight, says the think tank European Policy Centre (EPC).
The federal and regional layers are interwoven in the German federal system. The 16 federal states play a fundamental role in Germany’s national-level legislative processes. The Bundesrat, the chamber of the 16 federal states, presents all the legislation of the national German parliament, the Bundestag. The Bundesrat’s power to merely comment, amend, or block Bundestag legislation varies, depending on the delineation of competencies enshrined in the German constitution.
Thus, in key areas such as economic and social policy, the national level must ensure majorities in both chambers are secured in support of federal legislation. As a result, there is considerable political coordination between the federal and regional levels, regularly involving the highest political actors before legislation reaches their plenaries. The composition of regional governments can, consequently, have a direct impact on the federal government’s ability to legislate.
The Bundesrat has a total of 69 votes, with each state receiving between three and six votes under a system of degressive proportionality, similar to the EU’s co-legislators. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, has three votes, while North Rhine-Westphalia has six.
Unlike the Bundestag, where the AfD has been represented since 2017 and is now the largest opposition party, the party has so far never participated in a regional government.
Merz staying or leaving?
It is natural to think that regional electoral defeats of a governing party in a parliamentary setting are the precursor to the fall of the entire cabinet. But the German chancellor ruled out this possibility in a statement on Sunday itself.
Merz pledged to redouble efforts to pave the way for important reforms of his government, but there are doubts whether the CDU still has the political influence to do so. First, because the other end of the coalition, the center-left SPD, also did poorly in the elections and could pragmatically start voting against measures such as cuts in social assistance or market-oriented reforms. Second, because the chancellor has lost strength within his own Christian Democratic Union, which creates the danger that today’s leader becomes the so-called “lame duck,” a political term for someone who is weakened to the point of becoming easy prey for rivals.
At least electorally, Merz bought time. The next regional contest, in the western states of Germany, is scheduled for early spring 2027. Another electoral setback would almost certainly mark the end of Merz’s term.
Strength of the Right
Since the general elections of February 2025, the AfD, one of the main members of the Europe of Nations and Sovereign States group in the European Parliament, had already established itself as Germany’s largest opposition party at the federal level.
The party, often described as far-right because of its history of positions and leaders, is anti-EU, advocates for deporting immigrants and has ties to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, thus opposing any financial or military aid to Ukraine.
According to the European Policy Centre (EPC) think tank, AfD’s regional election victories must be seen in a broader political context as demonstrating significant support for a party that challenges the very foundations of the German constitution. And they will make it harder for Germany to build majorities for the necessary economic and social reforms in the coming months.
As Reuters noted, the political firewall strategy so far has kept the AfD out of power, with parties uniting to prevent a coalition with the right, but the party’s growing appeal to voters has raised questions about the future viability of that strategy.
How do the allied countries fare?
The GMF said in an analysis that Germany’s Western allies, including the United States, should be concerned about the latest election results due to the threat of internal paralysis. “A situation in which the chancellor fights a desperate battle for his political survival paralyzes Europe’s main economic engine and its growing defense actor,” warns the think tank.
Another outcome is that both AfD and Die Linke, though very different in many respects, share skepticism toward Germany’s policy of supporting Ukraine. And they advocate a better relationship with Russia — for example, the AfD is opposed to European sanctions on Russian energy and argues that Germany could again import cheap gas from there.
“All of this is happening at a time when NATO faces the increase of Russian hybrid threats along its eastern flank, and Ukraine faces a critical moment before its fifth winter under wartime conditions.”
Meanwhile, the EPC notes that a victory by the far-right of this magnitude strengthens radical-right actors across Europe, while encouraging sovereigntist narratives and limiting Germany’s margin of compromise on climate, migration, and budget issues in Brussels. “The vote is a continental wake-up call, especially considering the important elections approaching in key EU member states in 2027, including France, Poland, Spain, and Italy,” says the European think tank.
