Europe is learning to say “no” to Donald Trump regarding his war in Iran.
Nearly three weeks after the conflict began to widen, European leaders stopped hedging and started telling the U.S. president openly that they will not help in his campaign alongside Israel.
“We will not participate in this war,” said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday night. “We will not do this.”
“The simple answer is no,” echoed Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at a Bloomberg event in Athens on Tuesday.
“Norway will not do that,” agreed Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in Oslo.
It is a notable trajectory since the start of the war, when European leaders avoided questions about international law and unleashed criticisms of the Iranian regime. Merz had initially said he was “on the same page” as Trump. Now, the criticisms are directed at Trump himself.
“We need information from them about when the military objectives will be deemed achieved,” said Germany’s Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, on Tuesday.
The tougher rhetoric is a high-stakes bet for Europe. Although leaders are on solid political ground domestically — many Europeans detest Trump and oppose the war — the president has long complained about the security guarantees provided by the United States to Europe and has already threatened “very bad consequences” for NATO if not met.
“It’s very unfair to the United States, not to me, but to the United States,” Trump said on Tuesday, seated beside the Irish leader Micheál Martin, in the Oval Office.
“Obviously, we have to take seriously everything the President of the United States says,” remarked the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday.
Change in Tone
The turning point was Trump’s demands that Europe and Asia send ships to help restore the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital trade route that had nearly ground to a halt amid fears of Iranian attacks.
“If there is no response or if it is a negative response, I think it will be very bad for NATO’s future,” Trump threatened on Sunday in an interview with the Financial Times.
But, instead of politely considering Trump’s requests — or even trying to placate him as they did in the past — many European leaders offered a much more concise response: no.
“We will not participate in guaranteeing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by military means,” Merz said.
Merz’s refusal helped consolidate Europe’s broader stance, as the German chancellor not only leads the continent’s largest economy but also commands a major military expansion. By Tuesday afternoon, both Greece and Poland, two U.S. military partners, had also made clear their disinterest in aiding Trump.
“We have other tasks within NATO, and our allies understand that,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk before a cabinet meeting in Warsaw.
Even French President Emmanuel Macron, whom Trump had said he believed would get help, was already saying no on Tuesday.
“We are not part of the conflict,” Macron stated. “France will never participate in operations to open or secure the Strait of Hormuz in the current context.”
Message Delivered
By late Tuesday morning in Washington, Trump had already grasped the message.
“We do not ‘need’ the assistance of NATO countries anymore — WE NEVER NEEDED IT!” he wrote on his Truth Social account. “WE DO NOT NEED ANYONE’S HELP!”
The European approach reflects an evolving calculus in the relationship with the United States.
When Trump returned to power last year, European leaders largely yielded to his whims to try to keep him nearby on Ukraine, NATO, and trade negotiations.
They agreed when Trump demanded that NATO allies spend 5% of GDP on defense, even showering him with praise. They accepted a 15% tariff, in part, to keep him engaged in Ukraine.
Now, there is a growing sense that such a strategy will only leave Europe with burnt hands — without even being able to contain Trump.
In the Iran case, in particular, Europeans have little to gain and much to lose. The chaos could trigger a new wave of refugees toward Europe, just a few years after the last migratory surge from the Middle East. There is also the fear that even perceived involvement in the Iranian conflict could revive terrorist attacks that shocked Europe a decade ago.
The war, Merz said on Monday, “has the potential to trigger a large-scale migration.”
The focus, leaders argue, should be on dealing with the financial impacts of the war. With the Strait of Hormuz nearly closed, energy prices have surged, leaving governments worried about inflation, industrial slowdown, and even risks to food supplies.
“I think Europe will not be militarily involved, but it certainly needs to focus on the economic repercussions of the crisis,” Mitsotakis said.
The broader European message, however, may be that the United States and Israel need to sort out their plans — including them.
The United States and Israel “do not have a plan for how we will carry out phases two, three, and four,” said Støre, the Norwegian leader. The two countries, he added, “do not seem to have identical objectives.”
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