The Lula government (PT) decided not to react to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) trip to the United States and is awaiting the result of the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday the 3rd to calibrate its relationship with Washington.
According to InfoMoney, the assessment at the Planalto Palace is that the vote could alter the balance of political forces in the United States and influence the direction of bilateral relations. In this context, Lula intends to leave the issues involving Flávio under the responsibility of the Brazilian judiciary and avoid an escalation of tensions with President Donald Trump and with the President of Argentina, Javier Milei.
After having his Brazilian passports canceled by order of Alexandre de Moraes, Flávio crossed the border with Argentina on Tuesday the 27th using an Italian passport and proceeded to the United States. The Federal Police are investigating the circumstances of the senator’s departure, who is under investigation in two inquiries by the STF.
Pragmatism in Brasília
On Thursday (29), Trump stated that he wishes to talk with Lula, but again criticized the Brazilian electoral process without presenting evidence. As of now, there is no scheduled phone call, nor has there been a formal request for contact by the Brazilian president. Government officials emphasize that the outcome of the Brazilian elections has been widely recognized by the international community.
The episode is also expected to delay the analysis of the agrément [diplomatic approval for the appointment of an ambassador] for Daniel Perez, nominated by Trump to lead the United States Embassy in Brasília.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira participates on Friday (30) and Saturday (31) in the G20 foreign ministers’ summit in Atlanta, organized by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of the main allies of the Bolsonaro family within the Trump administration. The group’s heads of state have a meeting scheduled for December 14 and 15 at the Trump National Doral resort in Miami.
Tariffs Should Escape the Electoral Dispute
Since July 22, Brazilian products have been subject to a 25% tariff imposed by the United States under Section 301 of the U.S. trade law, with exemptions for coffee, beef, and orange juice. For 85.3% of the affected volume, the new rate adds to another 25% tariff already in place, increasing the total burden to 37.5%.
The two governments created a working group to address the issue, and Brazil awaits an American proposal in the coming weeks. Even if the Democrats advance in Congress, Brasília expects there to be little room to reverse the tariffs in the short term. Bills aimed at limiting presidential power in the trade area would hardly garner enough support to overcome a possible veto by the White House.
In October 2025, five Republican senators joined Democrats in a resolution to revoke tariffs imposed on Brazil. In that case, however, the measure was based on the Economic Emergency Act, later struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Rubens Barbosa, former Brazilian ambassador to Washington, does not expect significant changes in American trade policy.
“I don’t think the election will have a direct effect on Brazil, but it will certainly impact U.S. domestic politics,” he told InfoMoney. In the diplomat’s view, tariff policy tends to survive Trump himself because it reflects economic interests considered strategic by the United States.
Historian James Green, from Brown University and director of the Washington Brazil Office (WBO), sees tariffs as an essentially political instrument. He cites the 50% levy announced in 2025, when Trump linked the measure to the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), whom he described as a “witch hunt.”
“Tariffs have no economic logic. They are instruments of political pressure, negotiation, and retaliation,” he said.
Analysts say the advance of protectionism advocated by Trump is linked to strategic competition with China and to the attempt to strengthen the American industry. In the case of the relationship with Brazil, however, the United States maintains a historical surplus. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the United States posted a positive balance of US$ 480 billion in trade of goods and services with Brazil between 2000 and 2025.
