Military news in the Middle East again puts defense values in the spotlight. In a geopolitically tense context marked by the American military intervention in Iran, the French aerospace and defense leader, Dassault Aviation, disclosed solid annual results for 2025. At market open, Dassault Aviation’s (AM) stock rose slightly (around 1.5%).
While the Dassault Aviation share has risen 20% since the start of 2026, what factors could support or hinder this upward trend? Should you trade in the short term or invest in Dassault Aviation stock in 2026? Discover ActivTrades’ detailed analysis to determine whether the French flagship deserves inclusion in the best Equity Savings Plans (PEA) and the best Ordinary Securities Accounts (CTO) this year.
Who is Dassault Aviation?
A major reference in the French aerospace industry, Dassault Aviation stands out for its expertise in the design and production of military and business aircraft. Its catalog includes the Falcon, Rafale, and Mirage families, while extending into the space systems sector. With a broad international footprint, the Dassault Aviation group operates in more than 90 countries with an active fleet exceeding 3,000 aircraft.
Dassault Aviation: a solid financial and operational performance in 2025
The 2025 fiscal year confirmed the resilience of Dassault Aviation’s business model in a demanding environment. Persistent tensions in the aerospace supply chain and tariff-related uncertainties did not prevent the group from maintaining a solid production pace and strengthening its positions in international markets in 2025.
Order intake and revenue rose strongly, driven by export demand and key deliveries on the group’s two flagship programs, Rafale and Falcon. The order book and net cash position reached record levels, illustrating the robustness of the group’s financial structure. However, net income was weighed down by a French windfall tax surcharge, which affected the company’s competitiveness and illustrates the effects of national tax pressure on industrial players exposed to international competition.
For 2026, Dassault Aviation expects revenue to rise to around €8.5 billion, with deliveries of 28 Rafales and 40 Falcons. These targets sit within a particularly dense industrial and commercial roadmap.
On the industrial side, the Dassault Aviation group intends to continue reducing cycle times and manufacturing hours to meet its delivery commitments, while managing timelines and costs for ongoing developments. Upskilling of new hires is also a priority to support the ramp-up in production.
On the commercial front, negotiations for the 114-Rafale contract with India, along with the acceleration of the Make in India program, represent one of the year’s major challenges. Rafale export prospecting will continue in parallel, while the group aims to regain a leading position in business aviation support rankings to maintain the satisfaction levels of its military and civilian customers.
Technologically and strategically, Dassault Aviation is actively preparing the future of its combat aircraft line with the development of the Rafale F5 standard, work on a combat drone, and the development of a next-generation fighter aircraft. The group will also continue the VORTEX space program, as well as the deployment of digital technologies and the integration of artificial intelligence into its processes and products.
Dassault Aviation’s 2025 results in brief
- Total orders : €10.914 billion in 2025 vs €10.869 billion in 2024
- Defense orders : €8.290 billion in 2025 vs €8.309 billion in 2024
- Total revenue : €7.425 billion in 2025 (export share of revenue is 77%) vs €6.239 billion in 2024 (export share 68%)
- Defense revenue : €2.775 billion in 2025 vs €2.265 billion in 2024
- Adjusted operating income : €635 million in 2025 vs €529 million in 2024
- Adjusted net income : €1.061 billion in 2025 vs €1.056 billion in 2024
- Adjusted net margin : 14.3% of revenue in 2025 vs 17% of revenue in 2024
- Order book : €46.596 billion in 2025 (220 Rafale, including 175 Export and 45 France + 73 Falcon) vs €43.224 billion in 2024 (220 Rafale, including 164 Export and 56 France + 79 Falcon)
- Export share in the order book : 79% in 2025 vs 76% in 2024
- Available cash : €1.061 billion in 2025 vs €1.056 billion in 2024
What is the current price of Dassault Aviation stock (AM) on the stock market?
Dassault Aviation and Defense: what are the prospects for the military aviation sector in 2026?
A favorable global context for rising defense budgets
The global defense sector has benefited for several years from favorable momentum, driven by a combination of structural factors: deteriorating security conditions worldwide, rising tensions in certain regions, modernization of military doctrines, and governments’ desire to consolidate defense sovereignty.
These dynamics have led to a continuous and significant rise in defense budgets across most major global economies.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), global defense spending reached $2.63 trillion in 2025, up from $2.48 trillion in 2024 and $2.24 trillion in 2023. While real growth — estimated at 2.5% year over year — marks a slowdown from the 7%–8% increases seen in earlier years, it nonetheless confirms the continuation of an upward trend that began several years ago.
Europe shows the strongest dynamics.
The region allocated nearly $563 billion to European defense in 2025, up 12.6% in real terms from the previous year, comparable to the rise already seen in 2024. This trend does not appear cyclical: current budget plans suggest continued growth in 2026, reflecting a long-term regional commitment to strengthening European military capabilities.
Germany is the main engine of this growth. German defense spending rose 18% in real terms in 2025, reaching €95.0 billion, equivalent to $107 billion. This increase followed an already exceptional 23% rise in 2024, meaning Berlin alone accounted for about a quarter of the total European defense spending growth over the past two years.
Nordic countries are also contributing to this collective effort: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden combined $53.7 billion in defense spending in 2025, more than double their combined 2020 level. Even budget-constrained economies like the United Kingdom and France posted increases (though smaller in magnitude).
NATO defense budget 2025
A direct impact on the military aviation market
Military aviation sits at the heart of this rearmament dynamic. Increases in defense budgets mechanically translate into higher demand for military aircraft, embarked weapon systems, and maintenance and operational readiness solutions.
According to Mordor Intelligence projections, the global military aviation industry, valued at $52.17 billion in 2024, is expected to grow significantly to reach $74.44 billion by 2029. This trajectory rests on a sustained compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.37% over the period.
Another projection from the research firm (2026–2031) estimates the market at $60.17 billion in 2025, then $62.93 billion in 2026, reaching $78.72 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 4.59% between 2026 and 2031.
Several structural factors support this trajectory, such as ongoing fleet modernization programs, record defense budgets, and accelerated technology refresh cycles that ensure the stability of pipelines. Persistent regional tensions and threats also spur short-term orders.
The growth drivers: autonomy, AI and sustainable propulsion
Beyond simply renewing conventional fleets, the military aviation sector is undergoing deep technological changes that serve as growth drivers for industry players.
The development of autonomous systems is now a strategic priority for an increasing number of countries. Artificial intelligence-powered drones, capable of operating in swarms or in cooperation with manned aircraft, are redefining military intelligence and combat approaches and driving significant investments in R&D.
Companies in the sector are heavily betting on autonomous technologies, cybersecurity measures, and AI-based systems to develop next-generation aircraft, platforms, and infrastructures.
Sustainability is another major evolution axis. Environmental goals assigned to defense industries in several countries push manufacturers to invest now in solutions promising a lighter logistical footprint and reduced dependencies on fuel supply chains. These investments, still in early stages for the majority of programs, are shaping a military aviation market that will be deeply reshaped by 2030–2035.
Industrial competition remains intense across all these segments. In this context, supply-chain resilience and sovereign production capabilities are now decisive criteria in contract awards, alongside the operational performance of the proposed systems.
Risks not to be underestimated
This favorable trajectory should not obscure the risks and constraints weighing on the sector’s development.
First, potential global economic slowdowns and downward revisions of government budgets. These could lead to lower military budgets and delays in modernization programs, potentially deferring or reducing orders.
Furthermore, like the broader aerospace and defense industry, the sector remains exposed to structural vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. Disruptions in the supply of electronic components, specialized materials, or precision parts can delay production and weigh on delivery timelines, with direct consequences for customer satisfaction and program profitability.
Finally, the rising prominence of autonomous systems and AI technologies creates new vulnerabilities, particularly in cybersecurity. Industry players must imperatively integrate these risks into the very design of their products and in their related service offerings, or risk exposing their products to significant threats.
How high can Dassault Aviation (AM) stock rise in 2026? ActivTrades technical analysis
Listed on the Paris Stock Exchange (Euronext, Compartment A), Dassault Aviation (AM) has delivered remarkable performances for six years. Between 2021 and 2026, the stock has advanced by more than 270%, peaking at €354.80 on February 20, 2026.
During this period, two years stand out particularly:
- 2022, in which Dassault Aviation’s stock jumped more than 66% in the wake of global rearmament following the invasion of Ukraine,
- and 2025, which stands out as the group’s second-best year on the stock market with a gain of more than 38%.
2026 continues this trend and starts from solid footing, with the stock already up about 20% since January 1.
The release of annual results was well received by investors, though it did not trigger a broad move in Dassault Aviation’s stock. After having fallen more than 6% from its peak reached a week earlier, AM stock was up about 1.50% after the market opened at the time of writing this article, outperforming both the CAC 40 and the SBF 120.
A measured reaction that reflects more of an anticipation effect — good news having partly already been priced into the shares — than a lack of conviction about the trajectory of the French group. Investors will watch resistance around €343 and €353 if the rally continues, and support around €330 and €320 if the stock slides.
Stock chart analysis of Dassault Aviation (AM) stock in 2026
Should you invest in Dassault Aviation stock in 2026? ActivTrades view
Dassault Aviation’s fundamentals are supportive for the group. Despite a 2025 environment marked by supply-chain difficulties and uncertainties around tariff impacts, the company managed to maintain a solid production pace, strengthen its international positions, and post solid financial results.
The payout policy reflects this: the dividend proposed to shareholders for 2025 stands at €4.78 per share, up from €4.72 paid in 2024 and €3.37 distributed in 2023, illustrating Dassault Aviation’s confidence in the group’s trajectory and its willingness to reward loyal shareholders.
The macroeconomic and geopolitical context reinforces the case for investing in Dassault Aviation. The rising defense budgets in Europe and in several major global powers create a structurally favorable environment for defense players, of which Dassault Aviation is one of the beneficiaries. Coupled with a record order book and positive 2026 prospects, these elements argue in favor of exposing the stock within a long-term investment strategy.
That said, caution is warranted. With a rise of more than 270% since 2021 and a gain already close to 20% since the start of 2026, much of the good news is likely already priced into the shares. In a stock that has advanced so much, the risk of a technical correction should not be underestimated.
Rather than an immediate position at current levels, perhaps wait for a pullback to identified support zones or implement a gradual investment strategy such as Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) to optimize the entry point while controlling risk.
10 reasons to buy Dassault Aviation stock in 2026
- Global military demand has been structurally oriented higher for several years, driven by rising defense budgets in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, of which Dassault Aviation is one of the main beneficiaries thanks to Rafale’s export competitiveness.
- Strategic and almost irreplaceable role in France’s and Europe’s defense industry, which provides Dassault Aviation with implicit protection against market fluctuations: the sovereign nature of its activities makes major disruptions to its competitive position unlikely in the short or medium term.
- Unquestioned leader in air combat in France with the Rafale, a versatile fighter whose operational reputation continues to strengthen, consolidating Dassault Aviation’s position as a sovereign and strategic player at the heart of European defense programs.
- Record-high order book, offering multi-year revenue visibility and securing future income in a context of strong global demand for military equipment.
- Solid financial results with disciplined cost control, improving net cash, and a rising dividend policy, reflecting Dassault Aviation’s confidence in its future growth.
- Dual civil-defense model acting as a natural buffer against economic cycles.
- Premium positioning in the business aviation market with the Falcon line, whose new generations enhance commercial appeal and demonstrate Dassault Aviation’s ability to innovate in a high value-added and high-margin segment.
- Active integration of new technologies — artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, platform connectivity, embedded cybersecurity — which are preparing the next generations of products and positioning Dassault Aviation as a credible player in the digital transformation of defense.
- Stable capital structure with a majority family ownership favoring a long-term vision, shielding the Dassault Aviation group from short-term market pressures and ensuring continuity of industrial and strategic choices.
- Geographically diversified export exposure with Rafale contracts signed in several countries and an active sales pipeline in many nations, reducing dependence on a single market and providing growth levers complementary to the domestic French market.
7 reasons not to buy Dassault Aviation stock in 2026
- Dependence on government orders in defense markets, where budgets remain subject to political and electoral cycle uncertainties, which can lead to unforeseen delays or cancellations of orders.
- Currency risk exposure: nearly all Falcon sales are denominated in US dollars, making civil aviation profitability sensitive to euro/dollar fluctuations, in a context where dollar-based competitors enjoy a structural cost advantage.
- Persistent tension in the supply chain with aero-structure suppliers of all sizes still weakened since the Covid crisis, potentially causing production delays and unforeseen cost overruns.
- Long and complex development cycles exposing programs to cost overruns or schedule changes, with long-term contractual commitments limiting the ability to pass rising costs on to customers.
- Falcon market is sensitive to global economic conditions: business aviation customers cut discretionary spending during downturns, which can lead to order delays or cancellations.
- High and recurring cyber risks, both on internal information systems and on platforms and equipment shipped to customers, in a context of increasing threats of industrial espionage targeting defense and high-tech companies.
- Intense competition, including some American rivals such as Lockheed Martin benefiting from a dollar-based cost base and privileged access to the North American market, one of the world’s largest for business and military aviation.
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Some questions about Dassault Aviation stock?
It is impossible to predict with certainty how a stock will move. Nevertheless, several factors support the hypothesis of a continued upward momentum. Dassault Aviation benefits from an order book at historical levels, providing substantial multi-year visibility. Simultaneously, the structural rise in defense budgets in Europe and in many major global economies provides durable support, notably through Rafale-related orders. Added to that are solid financial results, controlled cash generation, and a rising dividend, all signs of healthy financial health. The 2026 outlook also remains positive and promising, with expected revenue around €8.5 billion. In a geopolitical environment that continues to favor defense industries, these elements can help support Dassault Aviation (AM) stock in the market.
Yes. Dassault Aviation has announced a dividend of €4.78 per share for the 2025 fiscal year, representing an increase of more than 41% compared to the dividend paid for the 2023 fiscal year.
After a gain of more than 270% since 2021, the main risk is that the good news — record order book, sustained military demand, and solid prospects — is already largely priced into Dassault Aviation’s current stock price. This leaves little room for upside in the short term and potentially exposes investors to technical corrections. Added to this are more structural risks related to dependence on government orders, supply-chain tensions, EUR/USD exchange-rate exposure, and geopolitical uncertainties which, while currently a motor, could just as well turn into a source of uncertainty.
