Oct. 22 (Reuters) – Artificial intelligence could spur global growth, but poorer countries, smaller businesses, and younger workers risk being left out unless there are improvements in access to energy, digital infrastructure, and skills, according to IMF and OECD officials.
The warning comes at a moment when massive investments in chips and AI infrastructure have helped sustain global growth and push stock markets to record highs, while at the same time raising concerns about whether companies will be able to generate sufficient returns on these large spending commitments as borrowing costs rise.
“For many developing economies, the critical question is whether they will be able to adopt and disseminate AI,” said Era Dabla-Norris, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, at Reuters Global Markets Forum.
Effective AI adoption could add up to 0.5 percentage points to global annual growth in the medium term, according to the IMF.
“But aggregate productivity data, to date, are much lower,” said Dabla-Norris.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that AI could raise the annual productivity growth in its member countries by 0.4% to 1.2%. But its Chief Economist, Stefano Scarpetta, said that workplace use lags behind consumer use, with adoption limited to only essential business functions.
“There is a large gap between exposure and actual use,” Scarpetta said.
The IMF estimates that around 40% of jobs worldwide could be exposed to AI, as reports of mass layoffs gain momentum.
Barclays has announced it will cut about 5,000 jobs this year as it uses technologies, including AI, to reduce costs and improve returns. eBay is reportedly laying off 9% of its workforce, while Qualcomm is expected to cut jobs globally in a “performance-led” reduction.
Dabla-Norris said that younger and entry-level workers may be particularly vulnerable if AI takes over tasks through which workers traditionally gain experience.
