(Bloomberg) — Israel intensified its strikes against Lebanon and said its ground forces would advance even further into the country, which could complicate negotiations between the US and Iran over a provisional peace agreement.
The Israeli forces, which are fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, will push beyond a strip of land of approximately 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) south of Lebanon, the Army said. Israel intensified strikes in other parts of the country and on Tuesday killed the new head of Hamas’s armed wing, another Tehran-aligned group, in Gaza.
The escalating invasion and Israel’s strikes on Lebanon, which have already killed thousands and displaced more than a million, are taking place at a time when negotiations between Iran and the United States to extend the ceasefire by about two months and reopen the Strait of Hormuz continue at a slow pace.
Iran insists that the ceasefire will cover “all fronts,” including Lebanon. Israel, which launched the war in large-scale by bombing Iran at the end of February together with the United States, resists accepting any restrictions on its operations in its northern neighbor. It says its actions are necessary to protect its communities and combat Hezbollah’s rockets and drones.
Both Iran and the United States stated that their negotiations, mediated by countries such as Pakistan and Qatar, are progressing. However, Marco Rubio, the Trump administration’s secretary of State, said on Tuesday that a few more days would be needed to reach an agreement.
Tensions remain high and, on Monday night, the United States killed several Iranian soldiers in an attack on ships that, according to them, were laying mines near the strait. Iran responded to the shots from American jets and said it had shot down an unmanned drone.
“Indirect contacts with the Americans continue,” said Ali Bagheri-Kani, the deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Wednesday in Russia, where he is attending a security forum. “Until we have reached a deal on all issues, we consider that we have not reached an agreement on anything.”
Another crucial point of disagreement is whether Iran will permit the free passagem of ships through the Strait of Hormuz after a provisional agreement, which would also include the lifting of the American blockade of Iranian ports. Washington says yes, but Tehran wants to control traffic through this narrow navigable channel, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows.
“There is no doubt that the conditions for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the procedure for doing so will not be the same as before,” Bagheri-Kani said. “A completely different procedure will be introduced. Iran and Oman, as neighboring coastal states, are negotiating to determine a new mechanism for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”
The sides in conflict, which agreed to a fragile cease-fire in early April, also need to reach an agreement on what portion of Iran’s financial assets will be unlocked and how quickly. On Tuesday, Iranian state media said Tehran wants US$12 billion unlocked as soon as the so-called memorandum of understanding — as the two sides are calling the provisional agreement — is signed.
It is likely that hardline proponents of a tough stance against Iran in the United States, including Senator Lindsey Graham, will resist this and push Trump to resume bombardments of the country.
Still, energy market operators remain optimistic about a deal, with Brent crude down 3% on Wednesday, to below $97 a barrel. The week’s decline so far stands at more than 5%. The price remains well above the level seen at the start of the war, reflecting the need for months for flows to return to normal if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
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