The heavy emphasis that has been placed on the exploration of fossil fuels and on oil prices at levels that may be considered low in recent years can, objectively, slow down the pace of the energy transition toward renewable sources, evaluated in the InfoMoney Interview by researcher and professor at PUC-RJ, David Zylbersztajn, who was the first General Director of the National Agency of Petroleum (ANP).
The expert highlighted in the interview that the major environmental movements around the world consistently press for the gradual reduction of dependence on fossil fuels. But Zylbersztajn stated that, although this is happening, the movement is much slower than what was stated.
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He recalled that, in 1990, the world depended on 85% fossil fuels, while last year this figure had fallen to 80%. “Even if this pace speeds up, we would reach 60% dependence in 25 years,” he calculated, noting that the supply of the commodity should not fall much, while demand will be growing. The expectation, he said, is that oil may lose its share in energy matrices, but a percentage share—in terms of volume—this decline will not materialize in the coming years.
And the issue of price competitiveness is another factor to consider, said Zylbersztajn. The explanation is that, even those who see an opportunity to swap their fuel oil or diesel for a fuel with lower carbon content will do the math and assess the competitiveness of the fossil source.
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Equatorial Margin
On the environmental license that Petrobras (PETR4) obtained to explore the so-called Equatorial Margin, Zylbersztajn stated that the criticisms were exaggerated, since the environmental issue had already been resolved with Ibama. He said he saw a lot of dogmatism, bad faith, and ignorance, especially when talking about exploring the mouth of the Amazon. “It’s not at the mouth of the Amazon, it’s about 600 kilometers from there,” he clarified, reinforcing that the area called the Sedimentary Basin of the Amazon mouth extends.
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Another point cited by Zylbersztajn is that the investments for exploration in the region could address issues of social injustice, because Amapá, for example, is a state that has only 7% sanitation coverage, with much to improve still in health, education, and infrastructure indicators, such as roads. “It won’t be with the money from our taxes directly that this will happen,” he stressed.
From an economic standpoint, this exploration is also beneficial, the researcher said, because it makes no sense for Brazil, ten years from now, to import oil that could be produced here. And to transfer wealth to another country, to another society, which is normally already quite wealthy.
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