Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) secured the electoral victory for an unprecedented fourth term, and the trajectory of Brazil’s closeness with China could create opportunities.
“It is a chance to transform diplomatic capital into economic results, in an increase of Chinese foreign direct investment and, why not say, an increase in import and export relations,” says José Ricardo Luz, CEO of LIDE China, to InfoMoney.
China has been Brazil’s main trading partner since 2009, and the relationship had already been reaching a new level during Lula’s third term. In November 2024, during Xi Jinping’s visit to Brasília (DF), the two countries signed nearly forty agreements. In May 2025, Lula returned from Beijing with announcements of R$27 billion in investments.
By the end of that year, bilateral trade hit a record of US$171 billion, and Brazil was the country that received the most Chinese investments in the world, with US$6.1 billion, according to the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC).
“We have, at least, four strategic areas. Reindustrialization, innovation, infrastructure and energy transition,” Luz points out. In infrastructure, for example, the main project is the Bioceanic Railway, which aims to connect Bahia to the Peruvian port of Chancay. The expectation is that, with Lula’s electoral victory, there will be progress. “We have a bottleneck in infrastructure and logistics. Undoubtedly, maintaining the relationship with China can bring more efficiency to export corridors,” he projects.
United States, focus of resistance
The energy transition is expected to be the front in which the competition between the US and China will weigh the most on Brazil. “One of the issues, for example, that Brazil discusses a lot with China is not only offering rare minerals for the manufacture of batteries, but having the know-how and producing the batteries for electric vehicles within the Brazilian domestic market,” says the representative of LIDE China.
The Washington pressure is expected to continue in Lula’s fourth term. In July, the US imposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian products, and in September, fifteen governments on the continent signed a declaration that includes critical mineral supply chains, without Brazil’s participation.
“Brazil needs to avoid the false choice between the US and China. Each partner has its characteristics and interests, and they are different opportunities,” contextualizes Luz.
BRICS must gain even more weight on Brazil’s agenda. It is not insignificant that China will hold the rotating presidency of the group in 2027. For Luz, the Lula government should treat the relationship with Beijing “from the perspective of Brazil’s national development.”
“It is about continuing to do business and expanding our markets, attracting investment, developing technology, and strengthening our ability to negotiate internationally,” he projects.
