The top NATO military commander is working on a strategy to achieve a rapid victory in the face of a possible Russian attack on the alliance’s eastern flank, with a special focus on integrating new defense technologies, such as drones and artificial intelligence, into traditional military might.
The so-called “theory of victory” document, which Bloomberg obtained in a non-confidential version, will be presented by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, on October 12 in Poland, amid rising tensions between NATO and Russia.
The aim is to clarify how the alliance would respond to a possible incursion into NATO territory, according to authorities and diplomats familiar with the matter. In recent months, there have been numerous reports that Moscow may be considering such action.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently stated that there is no evidence that Russia is preparing a conventional attack against the alliance, but warned that Europe must prepare to face hybrid attacks on an ongoing basis.
Grynkewich’s spokesman, Colonel Martin O’Donnell, declined to discuss details of the plan, but stressed that the alliance has a “purely defensive” character.
“The theory of victory of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe is simple: maintain NATO’s edge,” said O’Donnell. “In the face of a globally unstable and complex security environment, we must lay the groundwork now to deter aggressions and, if necessary, prevail should we be attacked.”
Although NATO’s general combat principles are known, public communication about them is usually rare. The initiative seeks to reassure the public about the alliance’s level of preparedness and, at the same time, to demonstrate more concretely what underpins the increase in defense spending.
According to sources, the document also aims to show allies how NATO would integrate traditional armaments with capabilities that emerged after Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as to spur greater defense investment and more robust preparation.
The strategy reinforces NATO’s defensive character and the need to avoid inadvertent provocations, but explicitly mentions the importance of collectively responding to hybrid threats, defined as aggressive actions below the threshold of open conflict, as part of the deterrence policy. By demonstrating readiness, the alliance aims to lead potential adversaries to conclude that military victory would be impossible.
If NATO is attacked, the plan calls for quickly halting any incursion using a combination of ground forces and other resources from the East Flank Deterrence Initiative. The concept rests on low-cost drones, minimally manned systems, and AI-based target selection tools. After ensuring freedom of maneuver, the alliance would seek to destroy the enemy’s command-and-control systems, with the aim of defeating Russian forces swiftly and decisively.
NATO member countries, especially Europeans, have significantly expanded their defense spending in recent years. This movement has sparked debates about how to balance investments between traditional armaments, such as tanks, and the new technologies that have taken center stage in the Ukraine war.
On Monday, the head of Germany’s external intelligence service warned lawmakers that President Vladimir Putin had already crossed the point at which he could end the attacks on Ukraine “without compromising his domestic power base,” increasing risks to continental security.
This summer in the Northern Hemisphere, the United States sent a questionnaire to NATO allies to assess their defense spending levels and support for President Donald Trump’s policies. The information is expected to underpin decisions about planned reductions in American military resources currently committed to European defense.
As part of this survey, Washington asked allies whether there would be additional troops that could be made available for the defense plans developed by Grynkewich.
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