In Felipe Sant’Anna’s assessment, a specialist in Axia Investing’s equities, the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei to Iran’s Supreme Leader may, more than a scenario of continuity, signal a ‘hardening’ of the political line established by his father, Ali Khamenei, who died last week at the outset of the United States’ attacks against the country.
Having for years been integrated into the regime’s most conservative circles and with strong ties to the Revolutionary Guards, Mojtaba is frequently described as a representative of the hardline wing of the Iranian establishment.
“Given the current backdrop of military confrontations involving the country and his father’s death in a military operation, the tendency may be to maintain or even intensify this stance,” he notes.
In his view, the nomination also makes clearer who could assume command of the country in the future, making him a central figure in the Iranian political scene.
“At the same time, the developments over the weekend, including Israeli attacks on Iran’s oil reserves and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increase attention to potential impacts on the international energy market,” says Sant’Anna.
In this context, the expert notes, expectations turn especially to market reactions and to the opening of oil futures, since the combination of military tensions, logistical constraints in the region, and the possibility of leadership even more aligned with the regime’s hardline stance could push up the price of a barrel.
Earlier, the United States President, Donald Trump, threatened further retaliation if the chosen name did not have his prior approval. “If it doesn’t have our approval, it won’t last long,” Trump told the American channel ABC News.
Israel has already stated that any new Iranian leader could become a military target.
