The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), is facing one of the greatest crises of his time in power as the Houthi rebels, the group he tried to defeat a decade ago, intensify attacks on the kingdom without his main allies offering decisive military support.
The Houthi drone and missile campaign has killed at least 18 people and forced the closure of the country’s main airport, putting Saudi defenses under pressure. Hundreds of flights have been canceled, schools have shifted to remote learning, and the Riyadh financial district has adopted remote work, less than two weeks before the Future Investment Initiative (FII), the kingdom’s leading annual event to attract global investors.
The scenario places MBS, who since 2017 has invested billions of dollars to transform Saudi Arabia’s international image and attract foreign capital, in a delicate position. With the Houthis hitting targets deep inside Saudi territory from their bases in Yemen, the crown prince may discover that he has fewer options than he thought.
So far, the rapprochement strategy with U.S. President Donald Trump has not resulted in direct American military intervention. Similarly, a new defense pact signed with Turkey and Pakistan has yielded only limited support. Gulf states have issued statements of solidarity, but have avoided becoming directly involved in the conflict.
“He is in a terrible situation,” said Karen Young, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “He needs to respond to the attacks, but also resolve the situation quickly to refocus on the economy.”
The War That Returned
MBS led Saudi Arabia’s entry into the war against the Houthis in 2015, in his biggest foreign policy gamble. The Riyadh-led coalition, however, failed to expel the Iran-backed group, which has strengthened over the years.
Now, Saudi planes have returned to bombing Houthi positions alongside a Yemen coalition supported by Riyadh, reviving a conflict that the Saudis spent years trying to disentangle themselves from.
The greatest disappointment for the kingdom has come from Washington. Despite defense accords struck with Trump and the Saudi pledge to invest US$1 trillion in the United States, the American government has limited its support to intelligence sharing, aerial refueling, and target information.
Trump even suggested a possible military response after the attack on Riyadh’s airport that killed an American citizen. “Maybe we will do that. We’ll see,” he told reporters. Even after speaking with MBS this week, however, the American president avoided committing to anything.
International Support Below Expectations
European help also fell short of Saudi expectations. The United Kingdom sent an in-flight refueling aircraft, while France promised troops, radars, and air defense systems to protect strategic facilities in Yanbu.
Saudi requests for additional assistance continue to go unanswered, according to people familiar with the negotiations.
Pakistan and Turkey, members of the new defense pact announced in August, pledged to provide troops and equipment but only for defensive roles. Egypt signaled willingness to help militarily, though without detailing to what extent.
Other Gulf states remain cautious. Many are still dealing with the consequences of previous confrontations with Iran and do not show willingness to enter a new regional war.
Oil and the Economy Under Pressure
The Houthis have also widened attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. Refineries, export terminals, and pipelines have been hit in recent weeks. A major oil processing facility in Jazan remains paralyzed, while the Yanbu terminal has also been targeted.
The situation comes at a particularly sensitive moment for the Saudi economy. The government now foresees a 3.6% contraction of GDP in 2026, reversing earlier projections of growth close to 5%.
The fiscal deficit is also expected to approach 5% of GDP, forcing the kingdom to continue borrowing to fund the Vision 2030 megaprojects, MBS’s flagship economic initiative.
The conflict continues to threaten foreign investors. Executives from BP and Shell canceled participation in the World Energy Congress in Riyadh, while organizers of the Future Investment Initiative are discussing contingency plans, including holding a hybrid event, in-person and online.
Strategic Dilemma
Analysts say MBS faces a difficult choice. Without broader U.S. involvement, Saudi Arabia may be forced to wage a prolonged war almost alone, increasing economic costs and the risk of alienating investors.
The alternative would be to renegotiate with the Houthis, as has occurred in recent years with Oman’s mediation. However, Saudi authorities fear that an agreement at this moment would be interpreted as a sign of weakness and would strengthen the group.
“When you face an enemy like this, it isn’t easy to rely only on air power,” said Abdelwahab El-Affendi, president of the Doha Institute for Postgraduate Studies. “You bear the consequences unless you’re willing to go all the way and deploy ground troops.”
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