SpaceX Stock: Buy Now or Wait?

On Wednesday, September 9, 2026, SpaceX stock (SPCX) dipped by nearly 4%, weighed down by the end of a new lock-up period. This led to the issuance of more than 319 million new shares, allowing long-time investors to lock in profits by selling their shares.

Since its IPO on June 12, 2026, SpaceX stock has become one of the most closely watched by investors. The consensus remains divided on the opportunity to add the ticker to a portfolio. Should one trade or invest in SpaceX stock by the end of 2026?

As a US stock, SPCX is not eligible for the top Equity Savings Plans. If you wish to invest in SpaceX, you can turn to the best brokerage accounts. Discover in this article the SPCX stock analysis from the online broker ActivTrades.

Qui est SpaceX ? Un modèle économique à multiples facettes

Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX is today far more than a company specialized in rocket launches. Its business model has progressively built around several complementary activities: space launches, satellite connectivity services with Starlink, the development of new launch vehicles with Starship, and more recently, AI-focused computing infrastructure.

This vertical integration is one of SpaceX’s main distinctive features. It designs a large portion of the technologies it needs, builds its own launchers and satellites, operates its Starlink network, and develops the infrastructures necessary for its new projects. A model that allows it to control a significant portion of its value chain and reuse some of its technologies across its different activities.

Launches spatiaux : le socle historique de SpaceX

SpaceX’s rocket launches constitute the company’s historical core and remain central to its business model. The company has stood out from traditional sector players by making rocket reuse a central element of its strategy.

With Falcon 9, SpaceX has notably managed to reuse the first stage of its rockets, which reduces the cost of certain missions and increases launch frequency. Its launchers are used to place commercial satellites into orbit, but also for government and military missions.

This activity also plays a strategic role for the other branches of the group. SpaceX can use its own launch capabilities to deploy satellites needed for Starlink’s expansion, rather than relying entirely on external providers.

The company is concurrently preparing a new generation of launchers with Starship, designed to be largely reusable and capable of carrying substantially larger payloads. Ultimately, SpaceX aims to use it to multiply satellite launches, support Starlink’s development, and undertake longer-distance space missions.

Starlink : transformer les satellites en revenus récurrents

With Starlink, SpaceX has progressively shifted its model. The company no longer simply transports satellites into space; it operates them to directly market a connectivity service.

Starlink rests on a network of satellites placed in low Earth orbit that provides high-speed Internet access. The company continues its development toward new uses, notably mobile connectivity.

This activity is particularly strategic for SpaceX, as it provides a source of recurring revenue, enabling revenue generation over a much longer horizon.

Starlink’s growth thus allows SpaceX to diversify its revenue and create a more predictable business. It also directly benefits from the group’s launch capabilities: SpaceX can use its own rockets to regularly place new satellites into orbit and increase the capacity of its network.

Intelligence artificielle : un nouveau relais de croissance

Artificial intelligence now constitutes another important axis of development for SpaceX. The company already uses AI in several areas related to its operations. But its ambition goes further.

SpaceX is also investing heavily in computing infrastructure for AI applications. This development opens a new market for the group and partly explains the recent surge in its capital expenditures.

This strategy brings SpaceX closer to one of the most dynamic segments of the tech economy. It also creates synergies with the group’s historic activities: satellites, launch capabilities, and computing infrastructures can be developed within the same technological ecosystem.

Derniers résultats SpaceX : les investisseurs s’inquiètent des dépenses d’investissement

On August 4, 2026, SpaceX published its first quarterly results as a listed company. On the face of it, the figures are solid: revenue up sharply, losses reduced, operating profitability markedly improved.

Yet the stock fell more than 10% in the wake of the release, before rebounding in subsequent sessions.

The reason for this divergent reaction is mainly tied to a single line item: capital expenditures. The group spent $18.4 billion in capex for the quarter, more than six times the amount a year earlier. The bulk of this envelope (about $15.83 billion) was allocated to artificial intelligence, a line item that had multiplied by 21 over one year. Investments in launchers ($1.17 billion) and in Starlink ($1.4 billion) appear comparatively more modest.

For the investor, this situation is not necessarily negative. A company in an expansion phase can accept heavy capital consumption if the investments later generate significant revenue and margins. The real challenge is the return on these investments.

If AI, Starlink, and Starship infrastructures enable several tens of billions of dollars of additional revenue in the coming years, the current level of SpaceX’s capex could retrospectively appear as a strategic investment. Otherwise, the current valuation could become hard to justify.

Faits marquants financiers de l’entreprise SpaceX du T2 2026

Quelles sont les perspectives du secteur de l’espace pour fin 2026 et 2027 ?

The space sector is entering a new phase of development. Long dominated by public programs and scientific missions, the space economy is increasingly based on private companies and on commercial applications directly used on Earth: telecommunications, navigation, observation, transport, defense, and data processing.

This transformation creates an environment particularly favorable to SpaceX, but it does not mean the company will be the only one to benefit from market growth.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) and McKinsey estimate that the global space economy could grow from about $630 billion in 2023 to $1,800 billion in 2035, a compound annual growth rate of about 9%. Importantly, this growth should not come solely from rocket or satellite construction. The technologies and services enabled by space, notably communications, geolocation, navigation, and Earth observation, should represent an increasing share of value created.

Des satellites de plus en plus nombreux et commerciaux

This shift is already visible in the available data. According to the OECD, nearly 15,000 satellites were operational by mid-2026, up from just over 14,000 at the end of 2025. The most significant change lies in the share held by private companies: they accounted for 88% of satellites launched in 2025, up from 23% in 2010. Telecommunication satellite constellations are now the main driver of this growth.

This evolution is particularly important for SpaceX since Starlink sits at the heart of this trend. The multiplication of constellations creates demand for launches, but also for satellite manufacturing, ground infrastructure, connectivity services, and data processing.

The potential market is therefore much larger than that of rockets. This is precisely one of the takeaways from the WEF report: as the cost of accessing space decreases, space technologies should become more integrated into the traditional economy. Sectors such as transportation and logistics, telecommunications, defense, agriculture, and Earth observation could thus be among the main beneficiaries of this evolution.

La défense devient un moteur de croissance supplémentaire

The development of space is also supported by rising public and military spending.

Satellites are now considered strategic infrastructures for communications, navigation, observation, and national security. The OECD estimates civil space budgets of its member countries reached $46.4 billion in 2025, up from $40.5 billion in 2022, while defense expenditures also contribute to supporting demand. According to ESA, global public investment in space reached €119 billion in 2025, while the upstream market (satellite manufacturing and launch services in particular) represented about €75 billion.

For SpaceX, this shift thus opens an additional market beyond Starlink’s commercial customers. Launch capabilities, satellite communications, and space infrastructures can meet growing needs from governments and defense actors.

This trend also strengthens the issue of space sovereignty. Nations are increasingly seeking to have national or regional capabilities to avoid dependence on a limited number of foreign suppliers. This could sustainably support investments in launchers, satellites, and orbital infrastructures.

Un marché spatial de plus en plus vaste, mais aussi plus concurrentiel

The market’s growth is attracting new competitors across nearly all segments. Amazon is notably looking to deploy its Project Kuiper/Leo constellation to compete with Starlink in satellite connectivity. In Europe, the push to reduce dependence on American launchers also stimulates investments in Ariane 6 and in a new generation of private companies.

The European challenge is particularly visible in 2026. Arianespace now aims for a cadence of nine to ten Ariane 6 launches per year from 2027, while Amazon has ordered six additional Ariane 6 launches, bringing its commitment to 24 launches through 2031.

Competition is not limited to the big established groups. New companies are developing smaller launchers or specialized solutions. Isar Aerospace’s recent success, which achieved in September 2026 the first successful orbital commercial launch from continental Europe, illustrates this rising power of new players.

For SpaceX, the challenge in the coming years will be to maintain its technological edge and convert this lead into durable profitability.

Jusqu’où peut aller l’action SpaceX fin 2026 ? Analyse technique ActivTrades

With a record valuation, mixed quarterly results, and massive investments in AI, the stock’s trajectory is as puzzling as it is fascinating. How far can SpaceX stock go by the end of 2026? Should one still position themselves in SpaceX by the end of 2026 or has the upside potential already been largely priced in?

Analyse graphique du cours de Bourse de l’action SpaceX

Listed on the Nasdaq, SpaceX stock embodies well the volatility of high-growth tech stocks, amplified by the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) effect that surrounded its IPO.

Since its record IPO in mid-June 2026, the stock has swung wildly: a 51% surge, followed by a more than 29% correction. These swings between euphoria and profit-taking reflect growing investor caution about the sustainability of the current valuation and the risk of an AI-related bubble, in a context where US indices are near their historical highs.

Technically, the first invalidation level sits at $139.75. A break below would open the path to $133.13, then to $115.00, the last major support before the all-time low. Conversely, a durable move above $157.03 would confirm a recovery with upside potential to $171.13, then a possible return to $192.03 before its all-time high above $225.

Faut-il investir dans l’action SpaceX en 2026 ? Avis ActivTrades

SpaceX today presents a particularly atypical investment profile. The company can no longer be considered merely a space-launch specialist: it now combines Falcon launchers, Starship development, satellite connectivity with Starlink, and massive investments in AI-related computing infrastructure.

This diversification offers several growth levers, but it also comes with substantial capital needs and a high level of uncertainty.

For investors, the appeal of the case depends as much on SpaceX’s growth prospects as on the price paid to access it. A company capable of conquering new markets can offer significant long-term potential, but a high valuation may already price in much of this future growth. SpaceX stock should thus be viewed as a growth stock likely to experience notable fluctuations.

Among the group’s activities, Starlink is probably the one whose business model is currently the clearest to investors. Its satellite communications activity generates recurring revenue through subscriptions and benefits from a growing user base. Ongoing expansion could progressively strengthen its contribution to SpaceX’s revenue and earnings.

In the longer term, Starship could, however, become the group’s main industrial catalyst. This giant launcher, designed to be fully reusable, should be able to carry much larger loads than the Falcon launchers and, in time, reduce the cost of access to orbit even further. Its success could have consequences far beyond launches: it would notably facilitate deploying Starlink satellites more numerous and more capable and could support the development of new commercial applications in space.

The potential is therefore considerable, but it remains conditioned on the technical and commercial success of projects that still require very large investments. Starlink currently represents the most tangible financial engine, while Starship is more of a bet on future value creation. AI adds a new potential growth engine, but also increases investment needs and the complexity of the business model.

The space sector outlook remains favorable for late 2026 and 2027, driven by the growth of satellite constellations, demand for connectivity, rising defense spending, and the development of new commercial uses of space. SpaceX has several advantages to capitalize on this, notably its lead in reusable launches and the scale of Starlink.

But market growth alone does not guarantee a rise in SpaceX stock. For shareholders, the challenge will be to determine whether the company can convert its technological edge and revenue growth into profits and cash flows large enough to justify its valuation.

That is why the end of 2026 and the year 2027 could be particularly important.

After allocating substantial amounts to Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure, SpaceX will gradually need to demonstrate the economic return on these investments. The question will then no longer be merely “how far can SpaceX grow?”, but “what profitability can it generate on invested capital to sustain this growth?”

In this context, SpaceX may present interesting potential for an investor with a long horizon and who accepts high volatility. Conversely, investors seeking steady income, a reasonable valuation, or high visibility on earnings could find SpaceX’s risk profile less aligned with their objectives.

ActivTrades’ view on SpaceX stock cannot be strictly bullish or bearish: the company possesses competitive advantages and exceptional growth levers, but investors must weigh them against the stock’s valuation, execution risks, and the magnitude of capital required to realize them.

7 raisons d’acheter l’action SpaceX en Bourse en 2026

1. The SpaceX company benefits from a structurally favorable market
2. A very large addressable market
3. A technological lead that is hard to match
4. Strong revenue growth in Q2 2026
5. Starlink becomes a true engine of recurring revenue for SpaceX with 12 million subscribers
6. Starship could change the economics of space launches
7. AI opens a new high-growth market

6 raisons de ne pas investir dans l’action SpaceX en Bourse en 2026

1. A high valuation that leaves little room for error
2. A float that widens with each lock-up expiration
3. A surge in capital expenditures
4. Significant stock volatility
5. Rising competition
6. Very concentrated governance

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