Donald Trump’s decisions in trade policy and in the Middle East may have become one of the main obstacles for the Republican Party in the U.S. midterm elections.
According to Ana Carolina Marson, a professor of International Relations at FESPSP, import tariffs and the war against Iran contributed to raising the cost of living and widening dissatisfaction with the government.
During Risk Map special on the U.S. midterm elections, the policy program of InfoMoney, the professor stated that economic performance is especially important for understanding the president’s electoral standing, who had come to the White House promising to restore jobs, strengthen industry and improve living conditions for the population.
The problem, she says, is that some measures taken to fulfill these promises ended up placing additional pressures on consumers.
“So, when Donald Trump imposes tariffs, it is clear that this raises the price of goods and services within the United States,” she said.
Tariffs can raise the prices of imported products and inputs used by American industry. The magnitude of this effect depends on the ability of companies and suppliers to absorb costs or pass them on to final prices.
The Cost of Tariffs
Ana Carolina argues that the attempt to stimulate domestic production through trade barriers runs up against the limits of the current structure of the American economy. In certain sectors, the United States remains dependent on foreign suppliers, even when imports are taxed.
The professor cited the reliance on semiconductors produced in Taiwan and on critical minerals used in strategic sectors. In her view, raising tariffs does not automatically solve these vulnerabilities.
For the professor, the political consequence appears when the consumer perceives that prices remain high, despite promises to strengthen the domestic economy.
The War That Entered the Voter’s Calculus
The conflict with Iran added another element of economic pressure. Instability in the Persian Gulf and restrictions on maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz affected the international oil market, with repercussions for fuels and production costs.
“The war in Iran, I believe, was the straw that broke the camel’s back, precisely because it complicated the economic situation,” she said.
The professor also pointed to a contradiction between Trump’s electoral rhetoric, which promised to avoid costly new military interventions, and his decision to expand American involvement in the Middle East.
In her assessment, the lack of clarity about military objectives made it difficult to politically defend the operation.
“He also did not make it very clear what his objective was in the war in Iran,” she said.
The combination of tariffs, energy prices, and military spending can directly affect the electorate’s economic perception, even though each factor has different effects on inflation and activity.
The Electoral Challenge
The professor believes that economic dissatisfaction helps explain why midterm elections have become a difficult contest for the Republicans.
InfoMoney’s international reporter, André Lucena, added that part of this weariness is also linked to structural transformations of the American economy, such as the loss of industrial jobs and the rising cost of living.
For him, restoring the United States’ productive capacity is a challenge that cannot be solved by imposing tariffs alone.
The discussion puts the cost of living at the center of the contest for Congress. Although Trump is not running, voters will have the opportunity to assess the results of his administration and decide whether to preserve or alter the legislative majority that sustains the government.
