In 2026, the surge in oil prices linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz restores a central role to the major oil companies, whose cash flows and dividends are boosted by the Brent rise.
In this article, Café de la Bourse has selected and analyzed three major European groups in the oil sector that combine critical size, strong cash generation and a shareholder-return policy, to position themselves on oil in the stock market in a turbulent geopolitical context.
Why invest in oil in 2026?
Since the outbreak of the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict in early 2026, the Strait of Hormuz (through which nearly 20% of world oil and about a third of crude transported by sea passes) has been operating at reduced capacity, with several tankers damaged and insurers threatening to suspend coverage. This situation raises the risk of a lasting supply shock and has pushed Brent above $100 a barrel, with analyst scenarios envisioning a persistently elevated price level in the event of a prolonged conflict.
In this context, European oil stocks have emerged as the major winners of the crisis: the Stoxx 600 Energy sector index has surged since the outbreak of the war, while other segments such as airlines or growth stocks have suffered. Majors focused on refining, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and international crude trading directly capture the price effect, while offering dividend yields often above 4–5%, making them natural candidates for a revenue-seeking portfolio in an uncertain environment.
Investing in oil during a geopolitical crisis remains risky, as price movements can be violently upward or downward and can significantly impact the volatility of sector stocks. Hence the appeal of favoring world-scale, integrated groups (upstream, downstream, LNG, electricity) with solid balance sheets, capable of absorbing price shocks and adjusting their investment policy if the situation normalizes.
How Café de la Bourse selected the 3 best oil stocks for 2026
To identify the three oil majors best suited to a crisis context in the Middle East, Café de la Bourse applied a demanding analysis framework combining financial fundamentals, geopolitical profile and sensitivity to oil prices.
Fundamental analysis (ROE > 10%, FCF > $10 bn, net debt/EBITDA < 2x, dividend yield > 4%): these thresholds ensure real profitability, abundant cash able to withstand cycle troughs and capital protection despite the high price volatility of commodities. A dividend above 4% also provides an income cushion during correction phases.
Geopolitical resilience (more than 50% of production outside the Middle East, diversification of export points, price hedging): the objective is to limit exposure to direct operational risk in the conflict zone, while mechanically benefiting from the overall rise in oil prices induced by the tensions.
Growth prospects (oil/gas production growth > 3%/yr, LNG/renewables transition): only majors capable of organic growth and initiating their energy transition retain solid valuation beyond the current upcycle.
Competitive position (moat via proved reserves, production cost < $30/bbl): a low production cost guarantees profitability even if prices normalize, and substantial proved reserves provide visibility over decades of production.
Crises-specific criteria (positive exposure to Brent > $80, strong balance sheet for buybacks): in a high-price context, majors with solid balance sheets can maximize shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, amplifying the total investment yield.
3 European stocks to invest in oil during a crisis
TotalEnergies stock: the French giant at the heart of the Middle East
What are TotalEnergies’ key figures in 2026?
TotalEnergies is one of the seven global oil supermajors, with integrated activities spanning exploration and production of oil and gas to refining, petrochemicals, LNG and electricity generation, including renewables. In 2025, the group produced about 2.50 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 1.43 million barrels were crude oil and 1.08 million barrels equivalent of gas and LNG.
The company posted 2025 revenue of approximately $201 billion, in the upper mid-range of the decade, with particularly dynamic activity in LNG and electricity despite a decline in energy prices from the 2022 peak. TotalEnergies is also very present in the Middle East (Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq), but diversifies its sources with large projects in Africa, Brazil, Guyana and the North Sea.
Which financial ratios for TotalEnergies to watch?
In 2025, TotalEnergies posted an adjusted net income of $15.6 billion and a cash flow of about $27.8 billion, confirming high profitability despite a more normalized price environment. The reported net income stood at about $13.1 billion, versus $15.8 billion a year earlier, a decline linked to the normalization after the 2022 energy shock but still well above the average of the 2010s.
The ordinary dividend of TotalEnergies reached €3.40 per share for 2025, up over ten years by nearly 39%, corresponding to a yield of around 5.4% at the price of €62.51 observed in early February 2026. Market capitalization is around €160 billion, with equity of about $117.5 billion, implying a moderate stock market premium relative to net book value.
How far can TotalEnergies stock go in 2026? Technical analysis
The daily chart of TotalEnergies stock shows a strong uptrend that began in fall 2025 and accelerated in February–March 2026, pushing the price to €76.93, well above all moving averages which now act as dynamic supports. The MA20 at €70.66 constitutes the first short-term support, followed by the MA50 at €64.92 and the MA200 at €56.48, all clearly rising, signaling a solid bullish alignment across the three timeframes.
Key technical levels on TotalEnergies include a long-term support at €48.44 (annual floor), a breakout zone validated around €60.89 (former high turned support), and the immediate resistance near €78.48, corresponding to the high reached in March 2026. A sustained break above €78–79, with significant volume, would theoretically open the path to new highs, while a pullback toward the €70–72 zone would constitute a potential attractive entry point for cautious investors.
With a MACD line at 3.4295, above its signal line at 2.8325, and a positive histogram at 0.5970 in expansion, the indicator confirms a sustained uptrend and acceleration on a daily basis. This clear bullish signal, started in early 2026, has not shown signs of fatigue, reinforcing the underlying uptrend of TotalEnergies.
Given the magnitude and speed of the recent rise (+ around 25% in less than three months), the RSI is likely in a moderate overbought zone (around 65–75), which does not undermine the long-term trend but urges caution on very short-term positioning and suggests waiting for a pullback toward supports for an optimal technical entry point for TotalEnergies stock.
How to invest in TotalEnergies stock? Café de la Bourse’s view
The TotalEnergies stock carries several advantages in the current environment: significant exposure to the Middle East, which makes it directly sensitive to Brent price increases, but also a diversified project portfolio that partially offsets local production outages. The company anticipates for 2026 an annual cash flow above $26 billion with Brent around $60, which suggests a very strong leverage effect if prices stay near $90–$100.
The TotalEnergies stock also offers an attractive yield-to-valuation pair: a moderate P/E, a generous dividend above 5% and a policy of distributing 40% of profits through a combination of dividends and share buybacks. For a French individual investor, TotalEnergies can form a core portfolio holding to position on the oil/gas theme while benefiting from favorable taxation via the Plan d’Épargne en Actions (PEA).
The main investment risks in TotalEnergies stock stem from the group’s dependence on energy prices, its heightened exposure to the Gulf (where around 15% of its production had to be temporarily stopped, according to Bloomberg Intelligence) and climate-related issues that could, in the long run, lead to stricter regulatory constraints or partial devaluation of certain assets. The stock remains therefore suited to investors willing to accept a degree of cyclicality and mindful of ESG debates, but the risk/return ratio seems attractive in the current environment.
Shell stock: the Anglo-Dutch supermajor champion of free cash flow
What are Shell’s key figures in 2026?
Shell is one of the world’s largest integrated oil companies, with strong positions in exploration and production, LNG, refining, petrochemicals and the distribution of petroleum products. The group has a broad global footprint, with a prominent presence in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa and Asia, which dilutes its direct exposure to the Middle East relative to some rivals.
Shell is also one of the global leaders in LNG, a key segment for Europe’s gas supply since the reduction of Russian gas deliveries; this position is once again strategic as gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz are threatened. The group is also developing activities in biofuels, electric vehicle charging and renewable energy projects, even though oil and gas remain the main contributors to its results.
What financial ratios for Shell to watch?
For 2025, Shell reported an adjusted net income of about $18.5 billion, down from $23.7 billion in 2024, mainly due to lower oil and gas prices and unfavorable year-end tax items. Despite this decline, cash generation remains impressive: the group reported almost $43 billion of operating cash flow and about $26 billion of free cash flow for the year.
Shell is pursuing a cost-cutting program that has already delivered $5 billion in annual savings since 2022, helping to sustain profitability in a lower-price environment. At the same time, the company has significantly increased shareholder returns: nearly $60 billion of share buybacks over four years, including $14 billion in 2025, and the dividend was raised by 4% in early 2026.
How far can Shell stock go in 2026? Technical analysis
Shell’s daily chart (LSE) shows a stock in a steady uptrend since summer 2025, with a marked acceleration since January 2026, pushing Shell’s share price to 3,404.5 pence (about £34), above all moving averages, all rising. The MA20 at 3,230.3p constitutes the first dynamic short-term support, the MA50 at 2,972.5p the medium-term support, and the MA200 at 2,769.7p the long-term structural reference, all three well below the current share price, signaling a highly stretched bullish trend.
Key technical levels for Shell stock are as follows: a major long-term support around 2,275.9p (annual floor 2025), an intermediate consolidation zone at 2,918p (former resistance turned to support), and the immediate resistance around 3,480p corresponding to the recent highs of March 2026. A pullback toward the 3,200–3,230p area (MA20) would constitute a prudent technical entry point for investors looking to position without chasing the stock’s rise.
The MACD line at 143.57 is well above its signal line at 132.25, with a positive histogram of 11.32 in expansion. This strongly bullish signal confirms momentum dynamics among the most powerful seen in years for this stock, in line with the acceleration visible on the candles since early 2026 (a sign that institutional buyers are strengthening their positions).
The intensity of the recent rise (+ around 30% since January 2026) likely places the daily RSI in significant overbought territory (above 70), which could signal a risk of consolidation or a short-term correction without undermining Shell’s underlying uptrend. A return toward RSI 50–55, coinciding with a pullback toward the MA20, would, in principle, represent an ideal technical entry signal for Shell stock.
How to invest in Shell stock? Café de la Bourse’s view
Shell stands out for its ability to generate massive free cash flow, even with Brent around $70–75, which gives it ample room to maintain an attractive dividend, buy back its own shares and finance its energy transition. The geographic diversification of its portfolio and its leadership in LNG make it a key player for European energy security, especially in a scenario of lasting disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
For a private investor, Shell stock offers an attractive profile as a “cyclic cash machine”: high sensitivity to oil prices, hence significant volatility, but supported by massive share buybacks and enhanced financial discipline since the 2020 crisis.
The main short-term risk for Shell stock lies in the possibility of a rapid Brent pullback if a credible diplomatic solution emerges in the Middle East, which could trigger a consolidation after its recent surge, as well as ESG debates and climate-related litigation weighing on the sector.
BP stock: the British major strengthening its balance sheet
What are BP’s key figures in 2026?
BP is another large integrated major, active in oil and gas exploration and production, refining, LNG and distribution, with a historic presence in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Africa and the Middle East. The group has pursued for several years a transition strategy aimed at gradually reducing the share of oil in its mix while developing biofuels, offshore wind and electric vehicle charging services.
BP remains highly exposed to the oil cycle and refining margins, making it an attractive way to capture the rebound in oil prices during a crisis, but with higher volatility than some peers. The company is a member of the FTSE 100 and benefits from strong liquidity on the London Stock Exchange, making it accessible to investors via a standard brokerage account or certain international brokers.
What financial ratios for BP to watch?
For 2025, BP reported an “underlying replacement cost profit,” an adjusted earnings metric, of about $7.5 billion, down from previous years but still solid in a more moderate price environment. Operating cash flow reached about $24.5 billion, despite an increase in working capital needs, illustrating good conversion of earnings into cash.
Capital expenditures (capex) totaled around $14.5 billion, down about 10% year-on-year, reflecting tighter discipline in capital allocation. Notably, the board decided in early 2026 to temporarily suspend the share-buyback program to allocate all excess cash to strengthening the balance sheet, signaling a prudent approach given energy market volatility. The dividend remains, however, with a competitive yield around 4% according to recent prices.
How far can BP stock go in 2026? Technical analysis
The BP daily chart (LSE) illustrates a remarkable path from the trough around 320–328.3p reached in early 2025: after a long rebuilding phase, BP stock made a powerful breakout beyond 474–480p around the turn of 2026, confirming a major trend change, and now trades around 565.4p near a key resistance at 583.1p. The 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages, at 514.6p, 480.37p and 436.45p respectively, are all rising and well below the current price, signaling a bullish alignment across timeframes.
The breakout of the 474–480p zone (former major resistance now transformed into a key medium-term support) represents a very positive chart signal. A return to this zone would constitute a potentially attractive technical entry point for BP stock; if there is a breakout above 583.1p with volumes, the next target would be around 600–620p. On the downside, the intermediate support sits at 480p (MA50) and then 436p (MA200).
The MACD line at 26.078 is above its signal line at 20.680, with a positive histogram of 5.398. The indicator has been in positive territory since early 2026 and continues to progress steadily, confirming a structurally established bullish momentum, with no signs of fatigue at this stage on a daily basis.
After the rapid rise of about +70% from the 2025 lows, the RSI should be in a moderate overbought zone (around 65–72), indicating a positive dynamic but inviting patience for investors seeking an optimal entry point. Unlike Shell, whose recent rise is more vertical and potentially more vulnerable, BP stock presents a more gradual recovery profile that slightly dilutes the risk of a sharp short-term reversal.
How to invest in BP stock? Café de la Bourse’s view
BP stock appears as an offensive yet reasonably bounded way to ride the rebound in oil prices: the company remains highly correlated with Brent, but benefits from the current rise to strengthen its balance sheet rather than maximizing immediate returns to shareholders, which can reassure long-term investors. Its exposure to the Middle East is significant but less concentrated than some local players, and its geographic diversification offers resilience in case of prolonged disruptions in the region.
The BP stock has rebounded strongly in recent months, which increases the risk of a technical correction if the conflict eases quickly or if Brent falls below $80. Nevertheless, the combination of an attractive dividend, debt-reduction efforts and a valuation still below the peaks of the previous supercycle makes BP stock a potentially interesting addition to a diversified energy sector equity portfolio, alongside TotalEnergies and Shell.
How to invest in oil stocks in the stock market in practice?
French retail investors typically favor one of the best PEA plans, such as XTB or Trade Republic, to invest in TotalEnergies, which provides tax advantages on dividends and capital gains after five years of holding. For Shell and BP, not eligible for the PEA, using a top ordinary-share account such as IG or Freedom24 is necessary, ideally through an online broker offering access to the London Stock Exchange at competitive fees.
It is also possible to position more diversely via energy or oil sector ETFs, or certificates and derivatives offered by brokers such as Bitpanda, eToro or Saxo Bank for more experienced investors who wish to amplify their exposure, keeping in mind that these instruments carry a higher risk of capital loss. Whatever solution is chosen, we recommend limiting the overall weight of the oil/gas sector in the portfolio, given the cyclicality of commodities and the long-term uncertainties related to the energy transition.
In summary, TotalEnergies, Shell and BP stock form three European pillars to gain exposure to oil in the stock market amid the Middle East crisis, combining high yields, robust cash generation and critical size. These three top oil sector stocks should nevertheless be integrated into a broader diversified strategy, bearing in mind that geopolitical shocks supporting their stock prices today can, tomorrow, unwind and trigger a rapid reversal in the oil market.
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