WASHINGTON, Oct 1 (Reuters) – U.S. authorities believe that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions for the Chinese armed forces to be ready by 2027 to seize the island, democratically governed, by force if necessary, according to sources familiar with the U.S. position.
Among the main reasons are delays in military preparation amid the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign, as well as Beijing’s willingness to see the results of the 2028 elections in Taiwan — which, according to some Chinese officials, could lead to a government more receptive to bringing the island under Chinese control — according to two current U.S. officials, a former U.S. official, and a person familiar with the matter.
Beijing may increasingly consider the use of force in 2028 and in the years that follow if the Taiwan election results in a victory for the Democratic Progressive Party in a fourth consecutive term and, in particular, if the current president Lai Ching-te is reelected, the sources added.
“If that happens, I think 2028 is going to be pretty chaotic,” said one of the U.S. officials, who, like the other sources, spoke on condition of anonymity.
Lai, who took office two years ago, and his governing party, the DPP, defend Taiwan’s separate identity from China, a position that often irritates Beijing, which views the island as an inalienable part of Chinese territory. Taiwan strongly opposes China’s claims and says only its people can decide its future.
The U.S. assessment, which had not been disclosed previously, represents a significant update to the long-standing understanding among U.S. officials that Xi wants the Chinese armed forces to be ready to potentially take Taiwan by force in 2027, the year of the centennial of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. China has never ruled out the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, but has also never publicly confirmed a readiness order for 2027.
The Pentagon declined to comment.
The Chinese embassy in the United States and the Taiwan representative office in Washington did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
In a speech this week, Xi referred to Taiwan and spoke about promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations to achieve “reunification.”
The 2027 target, which analysts say relates to Chinese military preparation and not a timetable for an invasion, has for years created a sense of urgency in several U.S. administrations regarding confronting China in the Asia-Pacific region.
The U.S. intelligence community had already signaled caution previously. In its annual threat assessment released in March, it stated that China did not, at least at that time, have a plan to invade Taiwan next year and still preferred to gain control of the island without the use of force, if possible.
