Ukraine could run out of resources to fund its defense against Russia in as little as two months, due to a combination of factors threatening tens of billions of euros in aid promised by its main allies.
Today, Kyiv has cash only to cover expenses through June, according to estimates shared by local and foreign officials who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter. Western allies’ support has been crucial to keeping Ukraine in the war for more than four years of Russia’s large-scale invasion.
A recent string of setbacks—from Hungary’s veto of a €90 billion (US$104 billion) loan from the European Union, through the impasse over the latest IMF aid package, to a limping NATO arms program—has greatly reduced the country’s financial room for maneuver.
The head of Ukraine’s central bank, Andriy Pyshnyi, said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this month that if international money does not come in, the central bank could be forced, in the worst-case scenario, to resume direct financing of the Ministry of Finance. Those funds would be used to pay soldiers’ and civil servants’ salaries, as well as to keep basic services running.
The pressure on Ukraine’s defense budget comes at a moment when Russia has benefited from a surge in oil revenues, driven by higher global prices caused by the war in Iran. This new conflict is also draining U.S. military resources and the attention of President Donald Trump, putting diplomacy toward a peace deal in Ukraine on the back burner.
The United States has effectively halted direct aid to Ukraine since Trump’s return to the White House in January last year, pushing Europe to shoulder the responsibility of sustaining arms deliveries and financial support to the Kiev government.
The new European Union resources package was supposed to begin disbursing as early as next month, after bloc leaders agreed in December to provide loans for this year and 2027.
That timetable, however, was left in limbo after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he would block the release of the funds until Ukraine resumes transit of Russian oil through its territory via the Druzhba pipeline damaged in a Moscow attack.
The Kyiv Finance Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. On Wednesday (25), Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko wrote on Facebook that he expects the release of EU resources “in the short term.”
In practice, the loan’s fate is likely to remain undefined at least until Hungary’s general elections on April 12. Orbán, the bloc’s most Kremlin-aligned leader, faces the most serious challenge of his 16 years in power, with his Fidesz party well behind the main rival in the polls.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the Hungarian maneuvers blackmail.
In a Telegram post on Thursday (26), Zelenskiy said the country expects “an alternative that allows Ukraine to access these resources,” otherwise “the Army will face underfunding.” He warned that the lack of money will affect the production of several types of drones and the purchase of air defense systems—two pillars of Ukraine’s war effort.
The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assured Kyiv that the EU will honor the loan “one way or another.”
For now, there are no concrete signs of that.
Orbán has based his reelection campaign on attacks on Ukraine. Even if he loses, Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, has already warned that he intends to keep the veto.
This impasse is likely to complicate negotiations over another €30 billion in additional resources for Ukraine that the EU hoped to raise with other countries, including G7 members, at the Finance Ministers’ meeting in Washington in April, during the IMF meetings.
Kyiv has also struggled to meet the commitments under the latest IMF loan program of US$8.1 billion approved last month, amid rising political tension between Zelenskiy and the Parliament. Lawmakers have not yet approved the tax-law changes required by the Fund, which would open space for new disbursements after an initial US$1.5 billion payment within the four-year program.
Although the country has until the next review, in June, to carry out the reforms, time is running out. IMF technicians, led by the mission chief Gavin Gray, met Ukrainian lawmakers earlier this month to assess the Parliament’s capacity to approve the changes, according to sources previously cited by Bloomberg.
The situation is further complicated by some NATO allies’ reluctance to put more money into the U.S. weapons purchasing program, known by the acronym PURL. Ukraine’s ambassador to NATO, Alyona Getmanchuk, told Bloomberg that only a small group of countries is bearing the bulk of the costs—and that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to go back to them for more help.
Kyiv estimates that US$15 billion will be needed just for U.S. weapons purchases this year.
In total, Ukraine estimates it needs US$52 billion in external aid in 2026, according to the country’s financial authorities.
If the current scarcity continues, the country could face “a financial catastrophe” as early as April, said Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the Parliament’s finance committee, in an interview with Forbes Ukraine last month.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
