The failure of the United States and Iran to reach within a few weeks an agreement on a UN-backed plan to transport fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a food-security crisis in parts of Asia and Africa, an official overseeing the proposed scheme said on Wednesday.
The United Nations created a task force in March to facilitate the passage of fertilizers through the strait. The mechanism developed has not yet been implemented, but the UN Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said it could be activated within 7 to 10 days after an agreement between Washington and Tehran.
“It is absolutely crucial to clinch the agreement in the coming weeks. Otherwise, we will lose the planting season,” he said in an interview in Bangkok, on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
Read more: Iran: US response to proposal to reopen Hormuz is insufficient, says state media
The White House, the U.S. State Department, and the Iranian Embassy in Bangkok did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iran has sought to strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz since the February attacks by the United States and Israel, using this strategic chokepoint to pressure Washington, which has maintained its own naval blockade of Iranian ports.
One-third of global urea passes through Hormuz
Before the war, the waterway moved about one-third of global urea traded—the fertilizer most widely used in the world—and almost half of the sulfur transported by sea, an essential input. It is also an important channel for the global supply of oil.
Fertilizer shipments from the Gulf region remained virtually paralyzed for more than six months after the conflict began, the International Food Policy Research Institute, based in Washington, said in a note last month.
Fertilizers represented a “very small” share of the rebound in some shipments during a ceasefire between mid-June and mid-July, the institute said.
Read more: Fertilizers: price of urea at Brazilian ports rose 19% in 5 weeks
Five ships per day
If the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, commodity prices could rise by up to 81% for cereals, 66% for oilseeds, and 30% for animal-origin products, according to an August report from the International Chamber of Commerce.
“If we miss this planting season, agricultural productivity will fall significantly and the impact on prices will rise considerably,” Moreira da Silva said.
The proposed operation would use a coordination center in Oman to register ships and coordinate safe passage, with UN monitors working alongside local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading.
Allowing as few as five ships per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz could maintain the flow of fertilizers to countries in critical need, Moreira da Silva said.
Ships would be tracked during transit, and additional inspections could be carried out if countries raised concerns about a ship or its cargo, he added.
Stalled efforts
Iran and the United States have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since a provisional ceasefire, agreed in June, collapsed. However, efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are stalled due to conditions set by Tehran and Washington’s insistence on addressing the Iranian nuclear program from the outset.
The UN-proposed mechanism could operate in parallel with talks toward a comprehensive agreement aimed at ensuring lasting peace and freedom of navigation, Moreira da Silva said.
“What we are telling them is: while you continue your discussions toward a comprehensive agreement, let us work, let us do our job,” he said, declining to specify the exact sticking points for an agreement, as discussions continue with both sides.
Beyond the Hormuz crisis, the deterioration of the situation in the Black Sea region, where cargo ships have been targeted, and an offensive by Iran-backed Houthi militants along a major Red Sea shipping route are worsening the threat to global food security, he added.
“What we are witnessing now is a concentration of factors,” Moreira da Silva said. “The climate crisis, the simultaneous disruption of maritime chokepoints in the Black Sea, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz.”
