LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) – Global warming is expected to be more intense than previous projections, even in the most optimistic scenario, with average temperatures rising to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, according to a United Nations report released this Wednesday.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy and climate policies that are reducing emissions in many countries, the report stated that urgent and stringent reductions are needed to achieve this best possible scenario.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report indicated that greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18% relative to 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. Current national plans would reduce emissions by only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035.
The report projected global warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 under current policies, or 2.6 °C if countries fully implement existing climate commitments. Both estimates are higher than last year’s projections, reflecting the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historic emissions.
As countries prepare for the next round of climate negotiations in Turkey, COP31, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it is crucial not to give up efforts to curb emissions that are causing floods, wildfires and other natural disasters.
“Overstepping the target does not mean giving up. We can still keep the increase to the smallest and shortest possible – and get temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” he said.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to try to keep the average temperature rise well below 2 degrees and, ideally, at 1.5°C.
Since limiting warming to 1.5°C without overshoot or with limited overshoot is no longer considered possible, UNEP said its new “low overshoot” scenario offers about a 50% chance that temperatures could return to 1.5°C or below by 2100.
The report indicated that climate plans presented since last year have hardly altered the projections of future warming and that returning to the 1.5°C goal would depend on large-scale carbon removal, the feasibility of which is uncertain.
