The World Bank revised downward the growth projections for Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay in 2026, while slightly raising its estimate for Mexico and keeping Colombia’s projection unchanged, in the October update of its Latin America and the Caribbean report.
The largest revision among the five countries occurred in Argentina: the forecast fell from 3.6% in June to 2.1%. Despite the cut, the World Bank states that fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are strengthening macroeconomic stability and market confidence. The country is still expected to record three consecutive years of expansion between 2025 and 2027, for the first time in nearly two decades. For 2027, the projection dropped from 3.7% to 3%; for 2028, it was kept at 3.5%.
In Chile, the estimate fell from 2.1% to 0.8%, amid the slowdown in domestic demand, worsening labor market and confidence, as well as higher fuel prices, adverse weather conditions, and lower mining production. By contrast, the growth projection for 2027 rose from 2.5% to 3%.
In Uruguay, the forecast for 2026 fell from 1.6% to 1.2%, with adverse external winds and soybean losses caused by drought, although private consumption continues to support activity. For 2027, the decline was marginal: from 1.9% to 1.8%.
For Mexico, the World Bank raised the projection from 1.3% to 1.4%, but notes that growth remains modest, with private investment constrained by domestic and external uncertainties and less momentum from large public projects. The projection for 2027 was raised by the same margin: from 1.7% to 1.8%.
The projection for Colombia remained at 2.3% in 2026; the report cites fiscal pressures, persistent inflation, and the effects of the El Chocó earthquake, partially offset by the resilience of consumption. For 2027, the projection rose from 2.4% to 2.6%.
