The luxurious reception offered by Donald Trump to Xi Jinping this week marked one of the most stable moments in the U.S.-China relationship in recent years. Now, the Chinese leader is seeking to take advantage of this period of rapprochement to consolidate more favorable conditions on sensitive issues such as Taiwan and trade.
Xi pressed Trump on Thursday to limit American support for Taiwan, while signaling willingness to broaden the commercial détente between the two largest economies in the world.
Potential gains for Beijing emerged amid two days of mutual flattery between the leaders. The meeting even included a ride for Xi aboard the American presidential helicopter. Trump said the two “have never gotten along better,” while Xi celebrated the “unprecedented agenda” of meetings held by them this year.
The next meeting will take place in November, shortly after the midterm elections in the United States, Trump announced.
The Republicans are at risk of losing control of Congress, according to polls showing Trump’s approval at historically low levels. A shift in the political balance could strengthen voices in favor of tougher measures against China, including greater support for Taiwan, stricter export controls, and additional restrictions on Chinese companies.
“Xi wants to obtain guarantees that Trump will continue handling the Taiwan issue with extreme caution,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, in Shanghai. “The question for China is whether this policy can continue after the midterm elections.”
So far, Trump has not publicly responded to Xi’s request for Washington to explicitly take a stance opposing Taiwan independence.
The U.S. ambassador to China, David Perdue, told Fox News that the American position remains unchanged.
“We do not support independence,” he said. “But we also do not support coercion.”
China has also not officially confirmed the extension of the trade truce announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Meanwhile, U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC that new details could be released as early as Monday.
Any agreement announced in the coming days will help show whether Xi returned to Beijing with something more valuable than the bald eagle statue he received as a gift from Trump.
“Perhaps we are living through the moment of maximum détente,” said Rana Mitter, a specialist in U.S.-China relations at Harvard University. “But in terms of concrete policy changes, we have not yet reached that point.”
Dinner diplomacy
The leading newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party splashed on its front page photographs of Xi’s arrival at the airport and of the meeting in the Oval Office, devoting three pages to the summit.
Trump, 80, praised Xi’s health, describing him as “strong, vibrant and fit.” He also allowed the Chinese leader to emphasize the cooperation between the two countries against Japan during World War II and avoided publicly addressing more sensitive issues, such as human rights.
Before the visit ended, Trump presented Xi with a photo album of the trip.
Despite the cordiality, clear signs remained of the limits to the rapprochement.
At the official dinner, Xi sat next to Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, whose most advanced artificial intelligence semiconductors remain prohibited for sale in China. The absence of Chinese executives among the about 130 guests underscored the American reluctance to corporate investments from Beijing.
Moreover, the extension of the trade truce for only two months fell short of the six months previously discussed.
China remains subject to the highest effective tariff imposed by the U.S. among its major trading partners, around 23%, versus about 7% for the rest of the world, according to Barclays.
Taiwan stays at the center of the dispute
The Taiwan issue remains the main political test of the bilateral relationship.
Beijing wants Washington to abandon the traditional formulation of “not supporting” Taiwan independence and to explicitly declare that it “opposes” the island’s independence.
A change of that kind would likely provoke a bipartisan reaction in the American Congress, traditionally supportive of strengthening Taiwan militarily.
For Jeremy Chan, a Eurasia Group analyst, Trump is unlikely to change U.S. policy.
“Both sides seem reasonably content with maintaining the status quo,” he said.
According to him, it is also unlikely that a US$14 billion package of arms sales to Taiwan will be approved before the G20 summit in December.
For China, however, success does not necessarily depend on a formal change in American policy. Ongoing delays in weapons sales and the reduction of high-level contacts with Taipei would already be enough to widen its influence in the long run.
Xi made clear that he is thinking beyond the current American administration.
By quoting the expression used by Beijing to characterize the current phase of bilateral relations, he said that “constructive strategic stability” should not be viewed as a temporary or short-term solution.
The biggest Chinese ace remains its dominance over the production of rare earths, essential inputs for products such as cell phones, electric vehicles, industrial equipment, and missiles.
According to Bloomberg Economics data, the United States and much of the world are expected to remain dependent on magnets produced in China at least through the next decade.
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